Hurricane PATRICIA

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21 CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162003
1500Z SAT OCT 25 2003

CORRECTED STORM DISPOSITONS AT 72..96...AND 120 HOURS
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 113.9W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 113.9W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 113.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.4N 114.1W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.1N 114.4W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 17.6N 114.6W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.3N 114.8W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.0N 115.1W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 20.0N 116.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 113.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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