Hurricane PATRICIA

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HURRICANE PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162003
ISSUED BY HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1500Z TUE OCT 21 2003
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 103.5W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE  25SE  25SW  50NW.
34 KT.......100NE  75SE  75SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 103.5W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 103.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 12.5N 104.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  25SE  25SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  75SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.6N 105.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 14.4N 106.8W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.1N 107.7W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.0N 109.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 19.2N 109.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 22.1N 108.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 103.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z
 
FORECASTER ROTH
 
 
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