Hurricane PATRICIA
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HURRICANE PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162003
ISSUED BY HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1500Z TUE OCT 21 2003
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 103.5W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 103.5W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 103.2W
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 12.5N 104.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.6N 105.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 14.4N 106.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.1N 107.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.0N 109.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 19.2N 109.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 22.1N 108.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 103.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z
FORECASTER ROTH
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