Tropical Storm OLAF

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TROPICAL STORM OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152003
2100Z SAT OCT 04 2003
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 102.5W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 102.5W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 102.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 16.2N 103.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.9N 104.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.6N 104.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.2N 105.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.5N 106.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 20.5N 106.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 21.5N 107.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 102.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z
 
FORECASTER KNABB/STEWART
 
 
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