Tropical Storm CLAUDETTE

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TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2003
 
CLAUDETTE IS ALMOST A HURRICANE. ITS ORGANIZATION CONTINUES TO
IMPROVE WITH AN EYE NOW VISIBLE ON RADAR. LAST RECON REPORTED 77 KT
IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OUTBOUND FROM THEIR LAST FIX...WHICH
ADJUSTS TO ROUGHLY 60 KT AT THE SURFACE. THE PRESSURE HAS NOT
FALLEN YET BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DO SO SHORTLY. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS OUTFLOW EXPANDING TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE AND DATA FROM
THE NOAA GULFSTREAM JET CONFIRM THAT THE SHEAR OVER CLAUDETTE IS
STILL PRESENT BUT DECREASING. CLAUDETTE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE OVERNIGHT. FORTUNATELY...THERE IS NOT A GREAT DEAL OF
TIME FOR CLAUDETTE TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO DO SO AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. ANOTHER FACTOR
INHIBITING STRENGTHENING WILL BE A RELATIVELY DRY ENVIRONMENT.

THE LONG-AWAITED TURN TO THE WEST HAS OCCURRED...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION IS 280/7.  NOW THAT CLAUDETTE IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE IN THE U.S. SOUTHWEST...AND THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE
LESSENING...THE FORWARD SPEED COULD INCREASE A LITTLE PRIOR TO
LANDFALL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF AND FASTER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE
GFDL...GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0300Z 27.8N  94.0W    60 KT
 12HR VT     15/1200Z 28.0N  95.1W    65 KT
 24HR VT     16/0000Z 28.2N  97.0W    60 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     16/1200Z 28.5N  99.0W    35 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     17/0000Z 28.5N 101.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     18/0000Z 28.5N 104.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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