926 
AXPZ20 KNHC 162105
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Feb 16 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Large NW Swell: Large NW swell continues to move
southeastward across the NW and north-central waters this 
afternoon, behind and just ahead of a cold front which extends 
from 30N119W to 18.5N140W. Seas of 12 ft and greater have reached
as far S as 23N to the W of 124W, with peak seas currently 
around 16 ft near 30N131W. Very rough seas of 12 ft and greater 
will continue to propagate southeastward and reach the waters N 
of 23N and W of 121W by this evening, then begin to slowly 
subside, with seas 12 ft and greater N of 24N and W of 118W by 
early Tue. Seas will then continue to subside to less than 12 ft 
Tue evening, before new N swell enters the northern waters by 
early Wed, raising seas above 12 ft across the waters N of 27N 
between 117W and 139W by Wed evening, and spreading southward 
through midnight Wed before beginning to slowly subside through 
Thu. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at 
website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends from 10N74W to 06N77W to 00N84W. The ITCZ 
extends from 02.5N92W to 01N113W to 04N132W to 01N140W. Widely 
scattered moderate convection is noted S of 07N and E of 87W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N 
to 09N between 125W and 136W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Weakening high pressure just NW of the Revillagigedo Islands continues
to produce a broad ridge southeastward to offshore of Cabo 
Corrientes, while elongated troughing remains inland across 
western Mexico. Light W to NW winds currently prevail across the
Baja offshore waters S of Punta Eugenia, ahead of an approaching
cold front reaching along 119W. Southerly winds are increasing
to fresh to strong across the outer offshore waters of Baja 
Norte to the N of Punta Eugenia, while fresh SW winds prevail in
the northern Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds are noted
elsewhere across the Gulf of California. NW swell is moving out 
ahead of the front, and has begun to enter the offshore waters of
Baja Norte, where seas are now 6 to 9 ft, while seas of 5 to 7 
ft prevail across the remainder of the Baja California waters and
W of 110W, and are 3 to 6 ft elsewhere W of Puerto Angel. Seas 
in the northern Gulf of California remain 3 to 5 ft. Farther
east, strong northerly winds have diminished to near 25 kt in a 
narrow plume across and downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, as 
high pressure prevails across the northern Gulf of America 
behind a passing cold front. Seas there remain 6 to 8 ft.

For the forecast, a cold front entering the outer Baja Norte 
waters this afternoon will move into Baja Norte this evening, and
then reach from NW Mexico across central portions of the Gulf of
California and Baja California to near 20N120W by Tue morning. 
Fresh to strong S to SW winds ahead of the front will move into 
the nearshore waters of Baja Norte this evening and prevail 
across the northern Gulf of California this evening through 
midday Tue. High pressure will build in across the area waters in
the wake of the front Tue through Fri, producing fresh to 
locally strong northerly winds nearshore Baja California to near
Cabo Corrientes Wed through Thu night. Strong to near gale-force
W to SW winds will develop again across the northern Gulf of 
California early Wed through Wed evening. New NW swell will 
continue to build across the waters of Baja California this 
evening through Wed, then become reinforced Wed night through 
the end of the week. Fresh to strong winds will continue across
the Gulf of Tehuantepec this evening through midday Tue before
diminishing, then become onshore Wed through Fri.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh offshore gap winds prevail across the Papagayo
region, while gentle to moderate northerly winds are occurring 
across the Gulf of Panama and veer NE and pass south of the 
Azuero Peninsula. Winds are light to gentle elsewhere. Seas are 4
to 6 ft and downwind of Papagayo, 3 to 4 ft from offshore 
Colombia northwestward, and 4 to 5 ft offshore Ecuador to the 
Galapagos Islands, 

For the forecast, fresh NE to E gap winds and moderate seas will
persist across the Papagayo region, pulsing to fresh to strong
tonight as high pressure builds across Central America from the
north. Those winds will continue to pulse to strong at night 
through early Thu, then become moderate to fresh thereafter. 
Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds will pulse from the Gulf
of Panama to south of the Azuero Peninsula through mid- week. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas 
will change little through the next several days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on
significant NW swell forecast for the northern waters.

A cold front continues to move southeastward over the area 
waters, extending from 30N119W to 19N140W. Fresh to strong NW to
N winds and building seas are behind the front, while fresh to 
strong southerly winds prevail E of the front, N of 25N and W of
116W. Weakening 1018 mb high pressure prevails ahead of the 
front. Moderate to locally fresh trades are occurring from 03N 
to 15N between 100W and 140W with moderate or weaker winds 
elsewhere. Seas are 5 to 8 ft in fading NW to N swell prevail N 
of the ITCZ to 15N and W of 100W, and are 5 to 7 ft across the 
remainder of the open waters ahead of the front. Scattered 
showers and isolated thunderstorms continue near the ITCZ, from 
01N to 09N between 125W and 136W. 

For the forecast, the cold front will continue to move eastward
tonight, with fresh to strong winds behind it, and will reach 
from near Punta Abreojos to 13N130W by Tue morning. Winds N of 
20N behind the front will gradually diminish from W to E tonight 
through Tue as the front weakens and continues moving eastward, 
before gradually dissipating late Tue. High pressure will build 
in the wake of the front Tue through Fri as a low to middle-
level disturbance develops S of 20N and near 140W. This scenario 
will produce a broad area of fresh to strong trades N of the 
ITCZ to near 24N and W of 128W late Tue through early Fri.  
Expect active showers and thunderstorms, with rough to very rough
seas in NW swell to accompany these increasing trades.

$$
Stripling