000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261544
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Dec 26 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1535 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Northern Waters Significant Swell: Large northwest swell 
generated by a storm system that is well north of the area 
is bringing very rough seas to waters north of 26N and west of 
about 125W, with seas peaking to around 14 ft (4.5 m) north of 
28N and west of 130W. Wave period with these seas is of 11-13 
sec. This swell will continue to propagate into the regional 
waters through Sat, with rough seas reaching as far south as 15N,
and as far east as 119W today before gradually subsiding Fri 
night through Sun. Rough seas of 8 to 12 ft are likely to prevail
into the weekend across the offshore waters of Baja California 
north of about 17N.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 07N98W. The ITCZ
stretches from 07N98W to 08N120W and to beyond 08N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is present from 04N to 08N and between 85W
and 98W. Similar convection from 07N to 10N and between 130W and
138W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge over the Gulf
of America and lower pressures in the deep tropics result in
fresh to strong northerly winds and seas of 6-9 ft in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Farther west, a strong gale center near California
sustains a large area of NW swell that is producing seas of 6-9
ft north of Punta Eugenia, especially west of Guadalupe Island.
Meanwhile, moderate to fresh NW winds and moderate seas are 
found in the central and southern Gulf of California and off Baja
California Sur. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight 
to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the gradient related to high pressure over the
Gulf of America will continue to induce fresh to strong 
northerly gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region through 
Sat morning, then gradually diminishing through Sat afternoon as
the high pressure slowly weakens. Seas in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec will slowly subside through Sat. Gale conditions may 
be possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region Tue. Northwest 
swell propagating through the waters north of Punta Eugenia will 
be reinforced by a new set of northwest swell building into the 
regional waters through tonight, spreading rough seas southward 
across the offshore waters of the Baja California peninsula 
through the upcoming weekend. High pressure will begin to build 
across the Baja waters tonight and through the upcoming weekend 
bringing a return to more typical northerly winds. Fresh to 
locally strong northwest winds are likely to develop in the Gulf 
of California Sun into Tue as high pressure strengthens across 
the region. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure north of the Caribbean continues to support fresh
to locally strong easterly trade winds in the Gulf of Papagayo,
extending downstream to 89W. Seas of 2-4 ft in the area
described. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
prevail.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
north of the area and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough 
will continue to support pulsing fresh to locally strong 
northeast to east gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region 
through Sat night, then at mostly fresh speeds afterward. Mostly 
gentle to moderate north winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama
during the period. Gentle or lighter winds and slight to 
moderate seas are expected elsewhere through the period. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on significant
swell impacting much of the northern waters.

A weak pressure gradient dominates the rest of the eastern
tropical Pacific outside of the swell region described in the
Special Features section. Moderate to locally fresh easterly
trade winds and seas of 8-10 ft are found north of the ITCZ to
20N and west of 130W. Moderate to occasionally fresh SE winds and
seas of 5-8 ft are evident south of the ITCZ and west of 110W.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are
prevalent.

For the forecast, the storm center that is well north of the 
area is forecast to move inland the Pacific NW coast and 
dissipate. This will allow for high pressure to begin to build 
into the regional waters from the NW. Global models suggest that 
a surface trough or broad low pressure will develop across the 
waters south of about 22N between 120W and 128W Sun into early 
next week. This will combine with high pressure building into the
region resulting in a rather broad zone of increasing winds 
reaching to strong speeds roughly from 16N to 26N and west of the
Revillagigedo Islands, accompanied by scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms. Seas may reach 12 ft with these winds as 
long-period north swell gradually decays across the area.
Conditions will improve by midweek.

$$
Delgado