000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261542
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Jan 26 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: A gap wind event is ongoing
across the Tehunatepec region. Wind are forecast to suddenly 
increase to 35 to 40 kt, with seas building to 9 to 12 ft by 
early in the afternoon. Then, winds will further increase to 
minimal storm force this evening, with seas building to around 22
ft tonight into Tue morning. At that time, gusty winds to near 
hurricane force may occur. Large seas generated from this strong 
gap wind event will spread well away from the Tehuantepec area, 
with seas 12 ft or greater reaching as far south as 10N by Tue 
morning. Marine interests transiting across or in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec today through Tue should be aware of this very strong
gap wind event, and take the necessary action to avoid this 
hazardous marine conditions over the affected waters. Winds are 
forecast to diminish below storm-force by late Tue morning but 
strong gale-force winds of 40 to 45 kt will persist. Gale 
conditions are then forecast to continue through Thu morning. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details
on this event.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 07N90W to 06N100W. The
ITCZ continues from 06N100W to 08N128W to beyond 07N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 
126W and 136W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
supporting light to gentle winds with moderate seas, with the
exception of moderate to locally fresh winds in the vicinity of
Los Cabos. In the Gulf of California, the most recent scatterometer
data show moderate to locally fresh NW winds along the entire
Gulf, with seas of 1 to 3 ft, highest toward the entrance to the
Gulf. Moderate to fresh N to NW winds are also offshore Jalisco 
where seas are 5 to 7 ft in NW swell. In Tehuantepec, a strong 
gap wind event has started with strong to minimal gale force
winds. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas in 
NW swell dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore forecast 
waters.

For the forecast, a very strong gap wind event is expected to 
continue in the Tehuantepec region this morning, with winds
reaching storm-force by this evening. Very rough seas will be 
associated with these wind speeds. Please, see the Special 
Features section for more information on this event. Otherwise, 
moderate to fresh NW winds are expected in the Gulf of California
through Fri, particularly across the central part of the Gulf, 
as a high pressure system settles over the SW of the United
States.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are across the Papagayo region 
and downwind to about 88W. Seas are 3 to 4 ft within these winds.
Moderate N winds and slight to moderate seas prevail in the Gulf
of Panama and downwind to about 05N. Elsewhere, light to gentle 
winds are noted with moderate seas in mixed SW and NW swell. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will persist in 
the Papagayo region today. Then, winds are forecast to increase 
again to 20 to 25 kt by tonight into Tue morning as high pressure
builds N of area in the wake of a cold front moving across the 
NW Caribbean. These winds will reach near gale force, mainly at 
night Tue through Thu, with seas building to 10 or 11 ft. 
Moderate to locally fresh N winds will continue to pulse in the 
Gulf of Panama through Fri morning. Elsewhere, winds will be 
moderate or weaker through Fri. Seas generated by a very strong 
gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region will propagate across 
the offshore forecast waters of Guatemala and El Salvador 
beginning this evening. The highest seas, in the 12 to 18 ft 
range in NW swell, are expected on Tue. Rough seas may persist 
through Thu.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge, anchored on a 1023 mb high pressure located near 
32N119W, dominates the N waters, mainly N of 15N and W of 110W. 
The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the
vicinity of the ITCZ is promoting an area of moderate to locally
fresh trades N of the ITCZ to about 18N and W of 115W. Seas are 
5 to 7 ft within these winds per recent altimeter data. 
Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker and seas are moderate in 
mixed NE wind wave and long period NW swell.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will remain
nearly stationary while a cold front reaches the NW corner of 
the forecast waters later today. The front will extend from 
30N138W to 27N140W by this evening, and from 30N134W to 25N140W 
by Tue morning. Fresh to strong winds are expected ahead and 
behind the front by tonight, then winds will diminish 10 to 15 kt
on Tue. Rough seas are forecast in the wake of the front, which 
is forecast to dissipate Tue night into Wed. Afterward, high 
pressure will build in the wake of the front.

$$
GR