000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032124
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Apr 3 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends southwestward from 09N84W to 06N96W. The
ITCZ continues from 06N96W to 05N110W to 04N133W. A second ITCZ 
is mainly south of the Equator and runs from 00N85W to 04S105W 
to beyond 03S120W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are noted from 04N to 10N between 83W and 88W. Similar convective
is seen near the western end of the ITCZ from 02N to 05N between
133W and 136W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the waters west of the Baja California Peninsula
supporting moderate to fresh NW to N winds, particularly N of 
Cabo San Lazaro. Light to gentle winds are noted across the 
remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf of 
California, and the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are moderate, 
primarily S swell, with slight seas over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather
pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California this
weekend into early next week generating gentle to moderate NW to
N winds. NW swell will also bring locally rough seas off Baja 
California Norte through Sat morning. Fresh NW to N winds will 
pulse in the northern Gulf of California tonight and Sat with
seas building to around 4 ft. In the long term, strong to near 
gale-force N gap winds along with rough seas are expected in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun night through midweek next week. 

Climatologically, the first gale-force event of the season occurs
in mid-October, with the final gale-force event occurring in 
late March or early April. Occasionally, gale-force events may 
occur as early as September, and as late as May. 

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh NE to E gap winds prevail over and downstream the
Papagayo region to about 88W. Winds are light to gentle elsewhere.
Slight seas are offshore Colombia, with moderate seas in S swell
prevailing for the rest of the offshore waters.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong gap winds are expected
during the nighttime and early morning hours in the Papagayo 
region and downwind to about 88W through midweek next week. 
Residual southerly swell will maintain moderate seas off Ecuador 
and near the Galapagos Islands through this weekend. Afterward, 
seas should gradually subside next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge extends southeastward from a 1030 mb high pressure
located near 40N133W across the northern forecast waters to near
the Revillagigedo Islands. A surface trough, clearly defined in 
scatterometer data, is over the NW corner of the forecast area 
and extends from 28N134W to 27N140W. E winds of 20 kt and seas of
8 to 9 ft in NW swell are observed N of the trough while fresh 
to strong S to SW winds and seas to 8 ft are south of the trough 
to 26N between 134W and 135.5W. Farther south, another surface 
trough is analyzed and stretches from 13N136W to 03N135W. 
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted where the 
trough meets the ITCZ. The pressure gradient between the surface 
ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is 
supporting moderate to locally fresh trades north of the ITCZ to 
20N and W of 115W. Mainly light to gentle winds prevail south of 
the ITCZ. Moderate to rough seas in cross equatorial swell 
prevail south of 10N and E of 120W, except in the lee of the 
Galapagos Islands. Several altimeter passes confirmed the 
presence of these sea heights.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient around the southern periphery
of the ridge and the trough over the NW corner of the forecast 
region will support moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate
to locally rough seas N of the trough through this evening, then
winds will become gentle to moderate by tonight. The trough will
move toward the NW. A cold front is forecast to reach 30N140W by
Sun night. A new set of NW swell will follow the front, forecast
to extend from 30N137W to 23N140W by Mon morning. Seas will briefly
build to 8 or 9 ft behind the front by Tue morning.

$$
GR