000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120254
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue May 12 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N74W to 07.5N79W to 10N85W
to 05.5N93W to 09.5N110W to 05.5N121W to 09N135W to 06N140W. 
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N to 09N
E of 97W, and from 05.5N to 07.5N W of 137W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 06.5N to 14.5N between 
101W and 110W, and from 03.5N to 11N between 110W and 135W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad ridge extends from 1021 mb high pressure well west-
northwest of the area near 31N135W to offshore SW Mexico. A 
surface trough is analyzed from near the SW Arizona/California 
border to across the eastern coastline of the Gulf of 
California. This pattern supports moderate N to NE winds 
offshore Baja California Sur extending to 20N, and light to gentle
W to NW winds offshore Baja California Norte. Seas offshore Baja
California are mainly 5-6 ft in mixed NW and SW swell. Light and
variable winds with 1-3 ft seas prevail across the Gulf of 
California, except for moderate NW winds near the coast of Los
Mochis and northern Sinaloa. Mainly light to gentle variable 
winds with 5-6 ft seas dominated by SW swell cover the remainder 
of the SW and southern Mexico offshore waters to Tehuantepec. 

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue over the
offshore waters S of 15N and between 101W and 110W due to a
persistent active mid to upper-level trough.
 
For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly gap winds will
develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec late tonight and then pulse at
night through early Thu, reaching near gale-force at times 
during the late night and early morning hours, in the wake of 
cold front N of the area. Seas will build to rough at times with 
the stronger winds. Fresh to strong SW winds may very briefly 
develop in the northern Gulf of California Tue night as a trough 
develops. Otherwise, mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail
across the remainder of the offshore waters, increasing to 
moderate to fresh offshore Baja California by the end of the week
as ridging west of the peninsula strengthens. Winds may increase
to fresh to strong well offshore Baja California Norte this 
weekend. Mainly 5-7 ft seas in mixed SW and NW swell will 
dominate the offshore waters, potentially building to 8 ft 
offshore Baja California Norte by the end of the week, then to 
8-11 ft Sat.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh NE to E winds are offshore southern Nicaragua and the
Papagayo region and extend southwest to near 93W this evening.  
Seas are 6-7 ft with these winds. Moderate NW to N winds prevail
across the Gulf of Panama and into the central coast of Colombia,
where recent satellite altimeter data showed seas of 3-6 ft. 
Light to gentle winds and 4-6 ft seas in S-SW swell dominate the
remainder of the offshore waters of Central and northern South 
America. Active convection continues across the offshore waters N
of 01N and into the coastal waters of Costa Rica, Panama, and
Colombia as described above.

For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds will pulse to strong offshore
of the Papagayo region through at least the remainder of the 
week, mainly at night into the early morning hours, building seas
locally to rough at times. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds 
and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through the 
remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend. Showers and 
thunderstorms are expected to remain active across the waters 
south of 09N through Tue evening. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad ridge extends from 1021 mb high pressure near 33N135W to
offshore SW Mexico, dominating the waters N of 10N and W of 110W. 
Gentle to moderate winds prevail N of the monsoon trough to 25N and
west of 110W. Mainly gentle winds are elsewhere, including S of 
the monsoon trough. Seas are 6-8 ft south of a line from roughly
00N97W to 20N140W in mixed swell. Seas are mainly 5-7 ft in 
mixed SW and NW swell across the remainder of the open waters, 
except 7-8 ft in S-SW swell S of the Equator and W of 100W.

For the forecast, the ridge will begin to weaken as the high
center drifts northward tonight through Tue, ahead of an 
approaching weak cold front. The associated weakened pressure 
gradient will support moderate trades, fresh at times, N of the 
ITCZ to about 22N and W of 120W through Tue, with seas of 6-8 ft 
across this area. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate 
seas will prevail elsewhere during the week. New high pressure 
will begin to build across the region from the NW early Wed 
through Fri to produce fresh trade winds S of 20N and W of 125W, 
with seas building 7-10 ft. Winds may strengthen slightly to 
fresh to strong across the N-central waters by the weekend with 
seas building there as a result. Rough seas to around 8 ft in 
southerly swell will continue across the far southwestern waters 
S of the Equator to 120W, and will gradually spread eastward in 
coverage to near 100W tonight. Seas of around 8 ft may persist 
across this same area through the end of the week and into the 
weekend.

$$
Stripling