000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162146
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Apr 16 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from the coast of Colombia at 07N78W to
06N95W to 4.5N105W to 05N110W to 06N115W, where it transitions to 
the ITCZ to 05N125W to 06N132W to beyond the area at 06N140W. A 
southern hemispheric ITCZ extends from 03S86W to 02S100W to 
02S112W to 03S120W to 02S130W to 03S140W. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is within north of the trough between 
108W-113W and within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 115W-119W. 
Scattered moderate convection is within is within 120 nm north of
the ITCZ between 124.5W-132W, also within 60 nm south of the 
trough between 95W-99W, and within 60 nm of the trough between 
103W-109W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A high pressure ridge extends from 30N130W to 23N123W and to
20N114W. The associated gradient is allowing for northwest winds
at mostly moderate speeds to exist over the offshore waters of 
Baja California and for moderate to fresh northwest winds to be 
over the offshore waters of Cabo San Lucas. Elsewhere, winds are 
generally northwest to north at moderate speeds. Overnight 
satellite altimeter data indicates seas of 4 to 6 ft in northwest
swell offshore the Baja California peninsula and of the state of
Jalisco. Slightly high seas of 5 to 7 ft in northwest swell have
recently entered the far northeast part of the discussion area.
 
Seas are 5 to 6 ft in long-period south to southwest swell are 
elsewhere offshore Mexico per latest altimeter satellite data.

In the Gulf of California, seas are 2 to 3 ft, except for
slightly higher seas of 3 to 4 ft in the southern part and for 
higher seas of 4 to 6 ft in south to southwest swell at the
entrance to the Gulf.

For the forecast, rather quiet conditions will remain over the 
Mexican offshores through the weekend. Developing low pressure 
over the southwestern United States will bring fresh southwest 
winds to the northern Gulf of California tonight before 
diminishing on Fri. Elsewhere, large northwest swell will impact 
the Pacific waters west of Baja California Norte tonight through 
Fri night. Looking ahead, high pressure building over the Gulf of
America is expected to induce a fresh to strong Tehuantepec gap 
wind event Sun night and Mon. 

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo region per
recent scatterometer satellite data. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in this
region. Elsewhere, winds across the regional waters are mostly 
at gentle speeds along with seas of 4 to 7 ft in long-period 
south to southwest swell.

satellite imagery shows clusters of scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection over the waters from 07S to 01N 
between 86W and 92W, including the waters near the Galapagos 
Islands.

For the forecast, winds are expected to pulse to fresh speeds 
late at night and into the mornings beginning next week. 
Convection occurring near the Galapagos Islands should last into 
Sat. Elsewhere, expect for rather tranquil conditions to remain 
over the Central American and the equatorial waters beginning 
tonight and into early next week. 
 
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1028 mb is analyzed north of the area at 
33N137W, with a ridge extending to 30N130W to 23N123W and to 
20N114W. High pressure covers the area north of about 16N and 
west of 115W. A pretty weak pressure gradient between the ridge 
and lower pressure associated to the ITCZ is allowing for 
generally moderate to locally fresh northeast trades over 
forecast waters. Seas over these waters are 5 to 7 ft in north 
swell merging with southeast swell. Aside from convection that 
is associated with the trough and ITCZ, no other convection areas 
are observed.

For the forecast, little change is expected in the winds during
the next several days. Large long-period northwest swell is
expected to impact the waters north of 27N and east of 125W
starting Thu night and through Fri night. Otherwise, little 
change in the seas are also expected through the weekend. Looking
ahead, a cold front may reach the far northwest forecast waters 
on Sun. This front should translate eastward while gradually 
weakening as indicated by the global models. A set of large 
northwest to north swell will follow the front.

$$
Aguirre