000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121009 CCA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Jan 12 2026

Corrected satellite imagery time

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: Storm-force northerly winds
are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec as strong high pressure of 
1036 mb centered over northern Mexico continues to ridge
southward over eastern Mexico. A very tight gradient between
the ridge and relatively lower pressure south of Mexico is 
resulting in these conditions. Very rough seas developed from 
these wind conditions are reaching to near 19 ft (5.5 m ).
Gale-force north to northeast winds of up to 45 kt reach 
downstream of the Gulf to near 13N between 94W and 96W. Seas with
these winds are in the range of 11 to 17 ft (3.5 to 5 m) as 
noted in a 0530Z altimeter satellite data pass. The storm-force 
winds are forecast to diminish to strong gale winds by around 12Z 
this morning as the tight gradient weakens just enough. Gale-force 
north to northeast winds are then expected to last into Tue night 
while gradually shrinking in coverage as the high pressure continues 
to weakens while it shifts eastward. Seas at that time are expected 
to have subsided to 7 to 11 ft (2 to 3.5 m) in north to northeast 
swell. By Thu morning, gale-force northerly gap winds will resume 
due to a strong ridge that will develop over the Gulf of America and 
across eastern Mexico in the wake of a strong cold front. Mariners 
are urged to take the necessary action to avoid the hazardous marine 
conditions brought on by the storm and gale-force winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website- 
https://www.nhc.noaa/gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northwest Colombia to northern 
Panama and extreme southern Costa Rica to 08N86W to 05N94W to 
06N110W. The ITCZ extends from 09N121W to 08N130W and to beyond 
08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 30 nm of the 
trough between 89W AND 91W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on a  
Storm Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec region.

The pressure gradient between the high pressure over Mexico and 
a trough in the Gulf of California region is bringing fresh to 
strong northwest winds to the northern and central sections of 
the Gulf of California. Moderate to fresh northeast winds are 
seeping through the mountain passages of Baja California Norte
into its offshore waters. Seas are 5 to 6 ft over the northern
and central section of the Gulf of California and 3 to 5 ft over
the southern section. Generally per overnight ASCAT satellite data 
passes, light to gentle winds are present elsewhere over the south 
and southwestern Mexican offshore waters. Slight to moderate seas in 
long-period northwest swell are over these same waters.

For the forecast, storm force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
region will continue for a few more hours before diminishing to gale 
force speeds. Very rough seas produced by these winds will slowly 
subside through tonight. The gale force winds are forecast to last 
through Tue night. By Thu morning, gale force northerly gap winds 
will resume in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region due to a strong ridge 
that will develop over the Gulf of America and across eastern Mexico 
in the wake of a strong cold front. Mariners are urged to take the 
necessary action to avoid the hazardous marine conditions brought on 
by the storm and gale force winds.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure north of the region continues to support fresh to 
strong northeast to east gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo 
region along with rough seas at times. Rough seas generated by
the present Gulf of Tehuantepec storm event are impacting most 
of the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. Pulsing 
fresh winds are noted in the Gulf of Panama. Moderate or weaker 
winds and slight seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the region will support
fresh to strong northeast to east winds in the Gulf of Papagayo 
region through the week. Pulsing moderate to fresh northerly 
winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama through Thu night. The 
rough seas over the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador
will subside Tue night as the northwest swell decays. Otherwise,
gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas will 
persist elsewhere for the next few days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1029 mb is north of the area offshore of
California. A broad ridge extends from this high south-
southwestward to north of 19N and west of about 120W. The 
gradient of pressure between the ridge and the ITCZ continues to 
support a broad area of fresh trade winds from just north of 
the ITCZ to near 25N as depicted in satellite data passes from 
0456Z and 0535Z. Seas with these winds are in the moderate to 
rough range, with the exception of mostly rough seas in long- 
period northwest swell west north of 14N and west of 132W. Winds 
are moderate or weaker elsewhere.

A trough is analyzed from 15N119W to 08N118W. Scattered showers 
and thunderstorms are east-northeast of this trough from 
13N to 16.5N between 112W and 118W. Similar convection is within 
30 nm of a line from 10N99W to 10N107.5W.

For the forecast, mostly fresh trade wind will continue across
the western part of the area through early Tue. The moderate to
rough seas there are forecast to subside by Tue night. Otherwise,
the ongoing gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will bring 
rough to very rough seas to the waters from 06N to 13N between 
95W and 110W from through Tue as a trough develops near 135W. A set 
of long-period northwest swell will impact the western waters west 
of about 126W from today into Tue while decaying, however, yet 
another set of long-period northwest swell is expected to begin to 
intrude into the far western waters starting Wed night.

$$
Aguirre