000
AXNT20 KNHC 052318
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Mar 5 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: 
The pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure and  
and the Colombian low will support fresh to near gale-force 
trades across the central and eastern Caribbean through Mon. 
Winds offshore of Colombia will pulse to gale-force during the 
overnight hours through Sat night. Seas of 8 to 12 ft are 
expected with the strongest winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 10N14W, then extends southwestward to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues
from 04N17W to 00N30W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted S of 03N W of 44W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A ridge from the Atlantic extends westward across Florida into
the Gulf region supporting moderate to locally fresh E to SE 
winds with moderate seas. Slight seas are noted across the 
coastal waters from Florida to Louisiana. A short-wave trough
over the east-central Gulf is helping to induce scattered 
showers and thunderstorms over parts of the NE Gulf and west-
central Florida. Convection is flaring-up over the Yucatan 
Peninsula.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will continue to extend
a broad ridge southwestward into the Gulf through early next 
week. The pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure 
over Mexico will support mainly moderate to fresh E to SE winds 
basin-wide. Seas will be slight to moderate through the forecast
period. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

Please see Special Features section above regarding a Gale Warning 
in the south-central Caribbean. 

The most recent scatterometer data provide observations of fresh
to strong winds across the central Caribbean, and in the Windward
Passage, with the strongest winds of 25 to 30 kt offshore Colombia,
where seas are in the 8 to 11 ft range. Moderate to fresh trades
and moderate seas dominate the eastern Caribbean with moderate 
to locally fresh winds and moderate seas over the NW Caribbean, 
including the Gulf of Honduras. An upper-level low over western 
Cuba supports the development of showers and thunderstorms over 
most of Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the NW Caribbean, mainly 
from 17N to 20N and W of 82W.  

For the forecast, a ridge will prevail N of the area into the 
weekend. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the Colombian
low will support fresh to near gale-force trades across the 
central and eastern Caribbean through Mon. Winds offshore of 
Colombia will pulse to gale-force during the overnight hours 
through Sat night. Fresh to strong NE winds will pulse in the 
Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba through early Sat 
evening. In the Gulf of Honduras, fresh to strong winds will 
pulse at night through Sun night. Rough seas in easterly trade 
wind swell over the tropical N Atlantic will continue through 
Tue. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A ridge dominates the Atlantic forecast region, with a 1037 mb 
high pressure located NE of the Azores, and a 1027 mb high
pressure situated in the vicinity of Bermuda. Under the influence
of this ridge, fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas are 
observed per scatterometer and altimeter data across much of the 
waters E of 50W. Moderate to fresh winds dominate the area S of 
25N and W of 50W, with seas to 8 ft E of the Bahamas. Gentle to 
moderate winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds 
will prevail S of 25N through Mon night, reaching strong speeds N
of Hispaniola into the Windward passage. Rough seas will prevail
within these winds and E of the central and southern Bahamas 
through Tue. Moderate or weaker winds can be expected elsewhere 
across the region. 

$$
GR