AXNT20 KNHC 011031
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
631 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2020
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
...Atlantic Gale Warning...
Rapidly strengthening low pressure is moving ENE just N of the
area. A trailing cold front has moved offshore the SE U.S. coast
early this morning and now extends south to near Fort Pierce FL.
SW gales are developing to the N of 29N and E of 76W, ahead of the
front. These will progress E to near 67W by midday and continue to
59W tonight when the front will pass Bermuda and the Bahamas.
Behind the cold front, NW gales will develop N of 29N between 62W
and 75W this afternoon into early Thu. Another round of NW gales
may surge into the area Fri into Sat N of 29N between 62W and
68W. Seas will build up to 20 ft over the gale area starting this
morning and continuing through the end of the week. Please read
the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N13W
to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from 04N19W to the coast of Brazil
near 00N45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
located within 90 nm either side of the boundaries to the E of
30W, and numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted
within 90 nm either side of the ITCZ to the W of 30W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
As of 01/0600 UTC, a cold front stretches from Tampa Florida to
near Tampico Mexico. Scattered showers are located within 60 nm S
of the front to the E of 88W, with isolated showers elsewhere
along the boundary. Behind the front, strong N winds are occurring
over the NE Gulf.
The cold front will race SE and clear the Gulf by this afternoon.
Strong NW winds and seas of up to 9 ft will follow the front over
the NE Gulf through midday today. Winds and seas will diminish
across much of the basin late today, and remain relatively
tranquil through the end of the week as high pressure builds over
the NE Gulf.
Strong winds are occurring off the coast of Colombia, otherwise
gentle to moderate winds prevail as high pressure continues to
settle into the basin. Dry conditions are also being observed.
As high pressure over the W Atlantic weakens and moves SE, winds
and seas in the Caribbean will remain fairly tranquil through the
week. A cold front will pass through the Yucatan Channel this
evening, then stall along 20N Thu and dissipate Sat in the
vicinity of Hispaniola.
Please see the Special Features section above for information on
the Gale Warning N of the Bahamas.
A band of scattered thunderstorms are occurring ahead of the cold
front described in the Special Features section from Bermuda to
the NW Bahamas to near Miami, Florida. Another cold front
stretches from 31N47W to 27N55W to 31N65W. Still a third cold
front is located in the eastern Atlantic from 31N26W to 21N37W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring along both of
these boundaries. A 1015 mb high pressure is centered just N of
the Virgin Islands.
The western cold front will move quickly E, passing Bermuda and
the Bahamas by tonight, then just N of Puerto Rico Fri. Ahead of
the front, SW gales will prevail through this evening N of 28N and
E of 77W, expanding E with time. NW gales will also develop
behind the front over the same later today and tonight.