000
AXNT20 KNHC 081004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Apr 8 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A slow-moving cold front extends 
from 31N72W to a 1009 mb low pressure centered near 29N73W to the 
Florida Straits. The front will drift slowly eastward, before 
stalling into the weekend from just E of Bermuda to eastern Cuba. 
The low will move NE along the boundary and lift N of the area 
near Bermuda Thu night. Thunderstorms with gusty winds will impact
waters along and east of the cold front through at least Thu. The
pressure gradient between strong high pressure to the north and 
the front is supporting NE gales offshore NE Florida, mainly N of 
28N and W of 72W. These gales will continue through tonight before
gradually diminishing as the low pressure weakens and begins to 
move N of the region. Very rough seas have been generated by these
gales, and seas of up to 20 ft are forecast in the gale area 
today into tonight. The very rough seas will linger across 
portions of the waters N of the Bahamas into Thu night, with rough
seas in N swell impacting much of the waters N of 25N into the 
weekend. With the stationary front lingering over the basin 
through the weekend, NE winds W of the boundary will be slow to 
diminish through the period. 

East Atlantic Large Swell: Long period NW to N swell continues to
propagating through portions of the far eastern Atlantic, causing
seas of 12 to 14 ft N of 19N and E of 39W. Rough seas cover a much
broader area, N of 10N and E of 55W. The swell will only very
slowly decay, and seas of 12 ft or greater will reach as far as
15N by Thu. Seas should fall below 12 ft Thu night, although rough
seas will likely persist into the weekend. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
both the West Atlantic Gale Warning and the Significant Swell in
the East Atlantic.

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has issued a Gale 
Warning for the forecast zone of Madeira. The forecast calls for 
NW gales to 40 kt, with severe gusts from 08/12 UTC to 09/00 UTC 
at least. Very rough seas in NW swell are also reaching the 
islands. 

For more details, refer to the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast 
listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N11W and continues 
SW to 02N21W. The ITCZ extends west-southwestward from 02N21W to 
00N44W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03S to 07N between 
05W and 38W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A slow-moving cold front extends from the Florida Keys to a 1010
mb low pressure centered near 24N85W to just N of the Yucatan
Channel. ENE winds gradually increase N of this boundary, becoming
strong in the NE Gulf, where seas are rough. in the western Gulf,
mainly gentle NE winds and moderate seas prevail. A cluster of
moderate convection has developed early this morning within 90 nm
of the coast of Tampico, Mexico, otherwise no thunderstorms are
present in the Gulf. 

For the forecast, the cold front will drift slowly E and out of 
the basin by Thu, keeping strong to near gale-force NE winds and 
rough seas in place over the NE Gulf into Thu. As high pressure 
builds SW into the northern Gulf Fri through the weekend, moderate
to fresh E to SE winds will establish through the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Atlantic ridge extends SW reaching the NE Caribbean. This
system is supporting fresh to locally strong E to SE winds and 
seas of 6 to 8 ft across the eastern part of the basin. Gentle to
moderate NE to E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are ongoing across the 
SW Caribbean while light and variable winds and slight seas 
dominate the NW Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is noted
between Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and Haiti, in association with a
trough to the north. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail over the 
central and eastern basin into Thu, with gentle to moderate winds 
to the west. Strong high pressure will then build southward from 
the western Atlantic, with a tightening pressure gradient leading 
to increasing winds, especially in the south-central basin. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the portions of the western 
Atlantic. A Gale Warning has also been issued by Meteo-France for
portions of the far eastern Atlantic. Please refer to the Special
Features section for details.

Aside from the cold front that is inducing the gales, a low 
pressure trough along 68W from 31N southward to about 22W is 
leading to fresh to strong S winds N of 26N between the trough 
axis and 60W. The trough and cold front are leading to numerous 
moderate to scattered strong convection extending northward from 
Hispaniola and eastern Cuba between 65W and 75W. 

E of 65W, broad northeast to east winds dominate the basin. Most
areas are having moderate to fresh breezes, but a zone of strong
easterly extend N of 20N and E of 40W, where some significant
northerly swell is leading to very rough seas. Details on the
swell and its forecast propagation can be found in the Special
Features section above. Moderate seas dominate the remainder of
the Atlantic. 

For the forecast west of 55W, please refer to the Special Features
Western Atlantic Gale Warning section for forecast details
related to the marine conditions caused by the previously 
mentioned frontal boundary.


$$
Konarik