Skip Navigation Links
NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 031038
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Cristobal is near 19.1N 92.3W at 
03/0900 UTC. This position also is about 30 nm NNW of Ciudad del 
Carmen Mexico. Cristobal is moving southeastward at 3 knots. The 
estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. The maximum 
sustained wind speeds are 50 knots with gusts to 60 knots. 
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 240 nm of 
the center, including in the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong is elsewhere from 22N southward between 
90W and 95W. Movement: the storm is expected to move slowly 
southward or southeastward, as it remains within a larger 
cyclonic gyre that is centered in eastern Mexico.  This motion 
should bring the center onshore to the coast of Mexico, in the 
SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, later today. Cristobal is 
forecast to continue to move very slowly toward the east or 
southeast through early Thursday. Increasing southerly flow 
should allow the storm to begin moving northward in the central 
and northern Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Additional heavy 
rainfall is expected in southern Mexico and northern Central 
America, potentially leading to life-threatening flash floods 
and mudslides during the next few days. Please read the latest 
NHC forecast advisory at hurricanes.gov for more information.

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Cristobal is part of a larger Central American 
Gyre circulation, that has been bringing heavy rainfall and 
severe flooding to parts of Central America and southern Mexico 
during the last several days. Additional heavy rainfall is 
expected through Saturday in parts of southern Mexico from the 
Yucatan Peninsula through Chiapas to eastern sections of 
Veracruz and Oaxaca. For Central America: in parts of Belize, 
Guatemala, El Salvador and southwestern Honduras: it is likely 
that these areas also may receive additional heavy rainfall. It 
is possible that the rainfall total for the entire event, from 
tropical cyclones and the gyre circulation, may end up reaching 
35 inches, nearly one meter. It is possible that the rains may 
lead to additional life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, 
especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Please read 
bulletins and forecasts that are issued by your local or 
national meteorological service, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28W, from 18N 
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated 
moderate is on either side of the tropical wave, with either the 
monsoon trough or with the ITCZ.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W, from 17N 
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated 
moderate is within 90 nm on either side of the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra 
Leone near 08N13W, to 05N17W and 03N24W. The ITCZ is along 06N 
from 30W to 47W. Precipitation: scattered moderate 
isolatedstrong is within 220 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 
42W and 45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 180 
nm to the south of the monsoon trough, and within 180 nm to the 
north of the monsoon trough between 18W and 25W. Isolated 
moderate covers the rest of the area from the monsoon trough to 
10N from the 28W tropical wave eastward, and within 300 nm to 
the north of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about 
Tropical Storm Cristobal.

Broken to overcast multi-layered clouds, and widely scattered 
moderate to isolated strong rain showers cover the rest of the 
Gulf of Mexico, except within 210 nm of the coast of Texas. The 
clouds and precipitation are related to moisture that is around 
the periphery of the circulation of T.S. Cristobal.

Tropical Storm Cristobal near 18.9N 92.0W, maximum sustained 
winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Cristobal will move inland today, 
weaken to a tropical depression, re-intensify to a tropical 
storm on Fri, then increase in intensity and move northward 
through Sat night. After Cristobal moves inland, moderate to 
fresh southerly flow will be present across most of the area 
through Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the 
heavy rainfall situation for Central America.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is spinning away from the 
area that is around T.S. CRISTOBAL, that is in the SW corner of 
the Gulf of Mexico. The upper level anticyclonic wind flow 
covers the Caribbean Sea from 70W westward. Precipitation: 
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 15N northward and 
70W westward, in the waters between Jamaica, Haiti, and Cuba; 
and from 15N northward from 82W westward.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Caribbean 
Sea, from 70W eastward. The base of the upper level trough is 
reaching eastern Venezuela. Precipitation: isolated moderate to 
locally strong is in the Mona Passage.

One part of the monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia, 
across the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, beyond northern 
Nicaragua, to southern Belize. Precipitation: widely scattered 
moderate to isolated strong is to the south of a line that runs 
from the NE corner of Nicaragua to the coast of Colombia near 
11N75W. Scattered moderate to strong is from 07N to 11N between 
72W and 75W.

A broad area of low pressure, known as the Central American 
Gyre, will persist in northern Central America and southern 
Mexico for several days. Expect widespread heavy rain showers 
and thunderstorms in the NW Caribbean Sea. Strong SE winds, and 
seas, are expected to continue in the Gulf of Honduras and east 
of Yucatan, through Saturday. Fresh trade winds are expected in 
the central Caribbean Sea through Saturday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A western Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N49W, to 
26N59W,  to the central Bahamas near Andros Island. 
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 270 
nm to the SSE of the cold front from 66W eastward.

An eastern Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N16W, to 
28N20W, 27N30W, to 31N37W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is 
within 120 nm on either side of the cold front.

The western Atlantic Ocean cold front will drift southward and 
stall this morning, then slowly dissipate through tonight. High 
pressure north of the front will support moderate to fresh trade 
winds, mainly north of Hispaniola, through Saturday. 

$$
mt/dbm