AXNT20 KNHC 251045
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
645 AM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Tropical Storm Dorian is centered near 11.0N 51.6W at 25/0900
UTC, approximately 480 nm ESE of Barbados, and is moving W at 11
kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb with maximum
sustained wind speed at 35 kt and gusts to 45 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is seen from 10N- 13N between 51W- 54W.
Dorian is expected to be near the central Lesser Antilles late
Monday or early Tuesday. Some strengthening is forecast during the
next 48 hours and Dorian could be near hurricane strength over
the eastern Caribbean Sea. Dorian is expected to produce total
rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches in portions of the Lesser
Antilles, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.
Swells generated by Dorian will be affecting portions of the
Lesser Antilles by late Monday. These swells could cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. See latest NHC
public forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35
KNHC for more details. See latest NHC marine forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details or
A 1012 mb surface low continues to be centered over South Florida
near 26N81W, with a surface trough extending from the low from
24N84W to 30N77W. Convection is seen firing off along the trough
and in the SE Gulf, from 25N-31N between 72W-82W. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a
tropical or subtropical depression is likely to form within the
next few days while the system moves northeastward offshore of the
southeastern United States. Interests along the coasts of South
and North Carolina should continue to monitor the progress of this
system. The chance for tropical cyclone formation within the next
48 hours is medium. See latest NHC public forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details or visit
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 30W S of 20N, moving W
at 10 knots. Scattered showers are within 100 nm of the wave
A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W S of 20N, moving W at
15-20 knots. No significant convection is noted at this time.
A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W S of 22N,
moving W at 10-15 knots. Isolated thunderstorms are noted near the
northern portion of the wave near SW Cuba. Scattered thunderstorms
are seen in Costa Rica and parts of Nicaragua from 09N-13N between
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Mauritania near 17N16W to 16N28W to 12N42W. The ITCZ begins near
12N45W to 12N49W, then W of T.S. Dorian near 10N53W to the coast
of Guyana near 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is seen
south of the monsoon trough from 07N- 11N between 15N- 38W.
Scattered thunderstorms are also moving off the west African
coast from 05N- 12N and E of 18W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A mid level low over the NW Gulf of Mexico continues to bring
rounds of scattered moderate convection. This activity is noted
from 24N-30N between 89W-97W. Scattered thunderstorms are also
seen just in the south-central Gulf from 23N-25N between 85W-87W.
Otherwise, surface ridging is seen across the basin anchored by a
1015 mb high near 28N87W. Latest scatterometer data depicts light
anticyclonic winds in the eastern and central Gulf, with gentle
to moderate southeasterly winds in the western Gulf. Moderate
northeasterly winds are seen NW of the Yucatan due to the Yucatan
trough noted from 18N82W to 21N90W.
High pressure will prevail over the forecast waters through
Thursday night. The high will maintain moderate to fresh south to
southeast winds over the waters west of 90W. Winds will be mainly
light to gentle east of 90W.
Scattered moderate convection continues to move through the
Windward Passage, mostly from 18N-20N between 73W-77W.
Thunderstorms are also noted between Cuba and the Cayman Islands
from 20N-22N between 79W-80W. Numerous strong convection, enhanced
by the eastern Pacific monsoon trough, is impacting the SW
Caribbean along the Colombia and Panama coasts S of 11N between
76W- 82W. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh
trades across the central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate
trades in the eastern and western basin. Light winds are in the
Fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean will
gradually increase in areal coverage through Monday. Fresh to
strong east to southeast winds will pulse over the Gulf of
Honduras at night Monday through Wednesday. See the Special
Features section for more information on Tropical Storm Dorian.
A mid-level low is slowly drifting eastward across the central
Atlantic, with a surface trough associated with this feature
analyzed from 22N65W to 28N59W. These two features continue to
produce scattered thunderstorms across the area from 21N-31N
between 50W-65W. Another trough in the central Atlantic is seen
from 26N45W to 31N44W with showers seen within 100 nm of the
feature from 25N-28N. Another surface trough is analyzed farther
east from 30N29W to 37N27W with showers seen along it.
A developing area of low pressure NE of Cape Canaveral, Florida
near 29N79W will track NE away from the coast of Florida into the
western Atlantic today and tonight. Winds converging on the east
side of this system will continue to bring scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms, some with strong gusty winds and rough
seas, over the waters west of 72W the next couple of days.
See the Special Features section for more information on this
system. Otherwise, gentle to moderate southeasterly winds will
continue across the area. Tropical Storm Dorian will approach the
southern waters, possibly as a hurricane, the middle of next