000
AXNT20 KNHC 051015
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Jan 5 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N13W and extends to
07N16W. The ITCZ continues from 07N16W to 04N45.5W. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring from 03N to 07N east of 28W. 

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is supporting 
scattered showers and thunderstorms near eastern Panama and 
northwestern Colombia.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Two surface troughs in the north-central Gulf are supporting 
widely scattered showers in the region. A weakening stationary 
front extends from the Florida Straits through the central Gulf, 
with a surface trough continuing westward toward northeastern 
Mexico. No significant convection is occurring near these 
features. Elsewhere, a 1018 mb high has been analyzed over the 
southwestern Gulf. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas 
prevail over the basin. 

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh S to SE winds 
and moderate seas are expected over the western Gulf through 
midweek as high pressure builds over the central basin and drifts 
eastward. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas will prevail 
over the rest of the basin. Looking ahead, fresh to strong S winds
and widespread moderate seas will develop west of 90W by early 
Thu, as a complex low pressure system over the central United 
States strengthens. A cold front associated with this storm system
is slated to center the northern Gulf by next weekend. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1013 mb low has been analyzed along the north coast of Jamaica,
and a surface trough extends northeastward through the Windward
Passage, and southward from the low to 13N74W. Moderate to fresh
NE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are occurring near the low and 
through the passage, with mainly moderate N to NE winds occurring 
elsewhere in the western Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trade winds
and 2 to 5 ft seas prevail over the rest of the basin. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh N to NE winds are expected 
over the north-central through western Caribbean early this week 
as high pressure over the Gulf of America moves eastward. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker trade winds and slight to moderate 
seas will prevail over the rest of the basin through midweek. 
Fresh to locally strong trade winds will develop over the central 
basin by Tue evening, supporting locally rough seas near and to 
the west of these winds. Looking ahead, widespread fresh trade 
winds may develop over much of the basin late this week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N60W southwestward toward the central
Bahamas, with a decaying stationary front continuing westward 
through the Florida Straits. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are 
occurring north and west of the cold front, and rough seas of 8 to
9 ft prevail north of 28N between 55W and 73.5W. Moderate to 
fresh SW winds and locally rough seas are noted to the east of the
front, north of 29N. A surface trough has been analyzed south and
east of the front, from 28.5N62.5W southwestward through the 
Windward Passage, and scattered showers and thunderstorms are 
occurring near and east of this trough. Farther east, a pair of 
surface troughs near the Canary Islands is supporting fresh to 
strong NE winds and rough seas near and north of the islands. 
Otherwise, a 1030 mb high centered north of the area near 43N25W 
extends ridging over the rest of the tropical Atlantic, supporting
moderate to locally fresh trade winds and 5 to 8 ft seas. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will 
drift eastward early this week. Fresh to locally strong SW to W 
winds and rough seas are expected east of the front, north of 29N,
early this morning. Fresh N to NE winds and rough seas occurring 
behind the front will expand southeastward early this week as high
pressure builds to the north. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh S to 
SW winds may develop offshore of northern Florida on Tue as a 
surface trough develops to the north. Moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas are expected over the rest of the waters by late 
this week. 

$$
ADAMS