000
AXNT20 KNHC 100613
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun May 10 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure 
well north of the region and relatively lower pressure in northern 
South America will lead to gale force winds off northwest Colombia 
through early this morning and then again on tonight along with 
very rough seas. This gradient will weaken some early next week 
as a cold front moves into the western Atlantic allowing for the 
pulsing gale conditions to end Mon. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic with axis near 17W 
from 01N to 12N, moving westward at about 5-10 kt. Scattered 
moderate convection is ongoing from 00N to 13N between 10W and 24W.

A tropical wave is about 660 nmi SE of the Windward Islands with
axis near 52W, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 04N to 12N between 48W and 56W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa near 11N15W
to 07N18W. The ITCZ axis extends from 02N19W to 00N35W to near 
00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 08S to 08N
between 29W and 50W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The interaction between a middle level trough and a surface 
trough in the NW Gulf results in scattered showers and strong 
thunderstorms across the NE Mexico offshore waters. A 1002 mb low
near Veracruz, Mexico is supporting numerous moderate to strong
convection offshore Veracruz and in the western Bay of Campeche.
Winds are moderate to fresh from the SE offshore Louisiana and
over the northern Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters. Moderate or
weaker winds are elsewhere, except in the areas of strong
convection where strong to gusty winds are likely. Seas basin-wide
are slight to moderate, except for potentially locally rough seas
in the areas of strong convection.  

For the forecast, unsettled weather conditions will persist in 
the area ahead of the next front. Farther south, winds will pulse 
to strong speeds near the Yucatan Peninsula in the evenings 
through Sun night. Looking ahead, another cold front will move 
into the northern Gulf waters early Mon morning, and reach from 
northern Florida to the Bay of Campeche by late Mon, followed by 
moderate to locally strong N to NE winds. Fresh to locally strong 
NW winds are expected off Veracruz Mon night into Tue morning. 
Scattered to numerous showers and strong thunderstorms are 
possible ahead of the front. Conditions will improve across the 
Gulf Tue night into Wed as the front weakens.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features for information on an
ongoing gale warning for offshore Colombia.

Aside from the gale warning information, the pressure gradient
between broad high pressure north of the basin and lower pressures 
in the deep tropics is resulting in fresh to near gale-force 
easterly trade winds and locally rough seas in the central 
Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh 
E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient between the 1028 mb
high pressure system over the NW Atlantic and lower pressures in 
the deep tropics will support fresh to strong easterly trade winds
with rough seas in the south-central Caribbean through late next 
week, including the Gulf of Venezuela. During the nighttime hours 
through Sun night, these winds are expected to reach gale-force 
off northwestern Colombia. Fresh to strong with locally near-gale 
E winds and rough seas are also anticipated in the Gulf of 
Honduras through Sun night. Moderate to fresh trades are expected 
across the remainder of the eastern and central Caribbean.
 
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak stationary front lingers south of Bermuda, while divergence
aloft supports a few showers and isolated thunderstorms off NE 
Florida. High pressure dominates the remainder of the basin, 
supporting fresh E to SE winds off northern Hispaniola, Puerto
Rico and the Leeward Islands, and moderate or weaker winds
elsewhere in the subtropics. In the tropical Atlantic, NE to E
winds are mainly fresh. Seas are mainly moderate basin- wide. 

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will continue to
dominate, supporting fresh to locally strong winds off northern 
Hispaniola through Mon night. Looking ahead, a cold front is 
expected to reach the waters off NE Florida late Mon and move 
eastward while weakening Tue and Wed. Fresh to locally strong 
winds and rough seas will follow the front, diminishing quickly 
Wed. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong to 
marginally severe, are possible near the front. Building ridge 
over the central Atlantic will support moderate to fresh SE-S 
winds and moderate to rough seas E of 70W late next week.

$$
Ramos