000
AXNT20 KNHC 210402
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Apr 21 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0345 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 14N17W to 01N32W. The ITCZ 
continues from that point to 01S46W. Scattered moderate 
convection is along and south of the boundaries mainly W of 20W. 

GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends from near Naples, FL to 22N94W. Fresh 
to strong N to NE winds and moderate to rough seas prevail in the 
vicinity of the front. To the NW, a 1017 mb low is analyzed near 
27N97W, with trough extending from the low to 21N96W. Fresh winds 
prevail E of the trough, and moderate winds are W of the trough.
Moderate to rough seas prevail across the basin, with highest
values across the eastern half.

For the forecast, fresh to strong N to NE winds and moderate to 
rough seas will prevail N of the front through Tue. Then on Tue, 
the western portion of this boundary will gradually dissipate over
the central and western Gulf, while the eastern portion will 
resume moving southward and move across Cuba and the Yucatan 
Channel, before stalling along about 21N Wed and dissipating early
Thu. Gentle to moderate southeasterly winds will return to the 
Gulf on Thu. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The front across the southern Gulf and western Atlantic is 
displacing and weakening the typical subtropical ridge that 
governs the trade wind flow across the Caribbean. This pattern is 
supporting gentle to moderate E trade winds across the basin this 
afternoon. Moderate seas prevail across the basin. 

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will continue N of the
basin and support a weaker than usual pressure gradient over the
Caribbean basin throughout the week. Fresh to strong NE winds
will develop Tue night and Wed night across the Windward Passage
and in the lee of Cuba, associated with a late-season cold front
moving slowly across Cuba. The front is expected to dissipate
across eastern Cuba early Thu. Tranquil marine conditions are
expected across the entire basin Fri and Sat. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from a 1013 mb low near 31N67W to 27N75W,
then becomes stationary to 26N80W. Scattered showers are active 
along the front. Fresh to strong NE winds with rough seas are 
evident north of the front. Farther east, a scattered showers and
thunderstorms are also active along a trough ahead of the front 
extending from 31N68W to 23N73W. A broad ridge dominates the 
remainder of the discussion area, anchored by 1027 mb high 
pressure over the north-central Atlantic west of the Azores near 
37N42W. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate winds and 
moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong N to NE winds and 
rough seas will follow the front as it continues moving 
southeastward, reaching from 31N60W to the NW coast of Cuba by Tue
afternoon, and then begin to stall and weaken from 31N55W to 
25N60W to eastern Cuba along 21N Wed morning. Winds will diminish 
Wed as the front stalls and dissipates along 21N by early Thu. 
Weak high pressure will settle in between northeast Florida and 
Bermuda Thu through Sat, in the wake of the front. Large N to NE 
swell will linger near the weakening front Tue night through Thu 
morning, including waters near the Windward Passage.

$$
ERA