000
AXNT20 KNHC 192208
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Mar 20 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has issued a gale
warning, in effect for the high seas zones of Irving, west of 
Madeira, and Meteor, until 20/00 UTC at least, with severe gusts.
Please refer to the next Special Feature for details on 
associated very large swells. Please refer to the high seas 
forecast issued by Meteo-France on the website: 
https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more details.

East Atlantic Long-period N Swell: Very large, long-period north 
swell generated by a large fetch of gale to storm-force winds in 
the northeast Atlantic will continue to propagate southward of 31N
through the weekend. Expect seas of 12-24 ft into Sat night, 
mainly N of the Cape Verde Islands and east of 43W. Seas across 
these northeastern waters will then gradually reduce in areal 
coverage with the remaining very rough seas subsiding below 12 ft 
near the Canary Islands Mon. Please refer to the latest High Seas 
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W, then curves southwestward to 02N34W. 
The ITCZ continues from 02N35W to 00N43W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 05N between 13W 
and 20W and S of 04N between 20W and 43W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1025 mb high pressure centered over the Florida Panhandle
extends a ridge SW across the basin. The pressure gradient between
this ridge and a stationary front SE of the area is leading to
fresh to locally strong NE winds across the SE Gulf, along with
moderate to locally rough seas. Elsewhere, mainly moderate NE
winds and moderate seas prevail. Over the NW Gulf, winds are light
to gentle, and seas are slight. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge across 
the Gulf region and a weakening stationary front over the NW 
Caribbean Sea will continue to support fresh to locally strong NE 
winds and moderate to rough seas over the SE Gulf, including the 
Straits of Florida, through Fri. Moderate to fresh NE winds are 
expected nightly, through the forecast period, across the eastern 
Bay of Campeche due to local effects associated with a thermal 
trough. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas will prevail through early next week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening stationary front extends along 79W from central Cuba
to just offshore NE Nicaragua near 15N, with a surface trough
paralleling the boundary about 90 nm to the east. As these 
features weaken, significant convection associated with them has 
dissipated this evening. Fresh N winds prevail W of the front, 
with seas to 8 ft. To the east of these features, gentle to 
moderate E winds and moderate seas prevail. 

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong N winds and moderate to
rough seas will continue to follow the stationary front until it
dissipates Fri offshore Nicaragua. Afterward, moderate to fresh 
NE winds will remain in the western Caribbean, including the lee 
side of Cuba and the Windward Passage through early Sun as high 
pressure develops across the northern Bahamas in the wake of the 
front. As the ridge shifts slightly eastward, fresh to strong 
winds will develop offshore Colombia early next week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

Refer to the Special Features section for details on an east
Atlantic Gale Warning issued by Meteo-France and associated large
northerly swells across the far NE waters.

A stationary front extends from 1012 mb low pressure lifting
northward from Bermuda to 31N70W to the Central Bahamas and
central Cuba. A pre-frontal trough extends from near 28N70W
through the SE Bahamas to just offshore eastern Cuba. Numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection is present E of this
trough, from 15N to 30N between 65W and 70W. W of the front, fresh
to strong NE winds and rough seas are present. 

In the east Atlantic, a cold front arches from the Canary Islands
to 22N28W to 31N38W. Strong N winds and rough to very rough seas
are N of this front, with hazardous marine conditions in
association with this front depicted further in the aforementioned
Special Marine section above. The rough seas in NE swell extend
much farther S and W, reaching to 15N and as far W as 55W.

Between these two frontal systems and across the remainder of the
basin, an expansive 1031 mb ridge centered near 38N45W dominates.
This is leading to moderate to fresh mainly E winds S of the high
across area waters, with moderate seas. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will remain nearly stationary 
from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas today. A weak low pressure
is forecast to develop along the frontal boundary late today into
Fri. This will tighten the pressure gradient, supporting fresh to
strong winds and rough seas on either side of front and across 
the offshore waters N of 25N through the weekend, as this system 
then transitions to a cold front and moves east of the area. A new
cold front is forecast to enter the NE Florida offshore waters 
Mon night into Tue, followed by fresh to strong NE to E winds and 
rough seas. 

$$
Konarik