133 
AXNT20 KNHC 031003
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Apr 3 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0800 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 03N20W. 
The ITCZ extends from 03N20W and continues to 01N42W. Scattered 
moderate convection is S of 04N between 15W and 35W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

With high pressure centered NE of the basin, moderate to fresh SE
winds dominate, along with seas of 3 to 6 ft. No significant
convection is ongoing. 

For the forecast, high pressure dominating the basin will weaken 
and slide east by Sat, allowing a cold front to move offshore 
Texas Sat night. Ahead of the front, moderate to fresh SE winds 
will dominate, except for the Florida Straits where locally strong
E winds will prevail. The cold front will slowly track into the 
SE basin by early next week, with strong NE winds expect across 
portions of the northern and western Gulf behind the front, along 
with rough seas. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a ridge N of the area and the 
Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong NE winds offshore 
Colombia, south of Hispaniola and also in the Windward Passage. 
Seas over these areas are in the 6-8 ft range. Moderate to fresh 
NE to E winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. Upper-level
divergence is yielding scattered moderate convection in the NW
basin. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to support 
pulsing strong winds and rough seas offshore Colombia, Cuba, 
Hispaniola, and through the Windward Passage into Sat. This 
weekend, the high will weaken some and move east, loosening the 
gradient and allowing winds and seas to decrease some. An inverted
trough will develop from Hispaniola northward into the open 
Atlantic Mon through Tue, maintaining fresh trade winds across the
eastern Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure N of the area extends a ridge across the entire 
subtropical waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and 
the trough is supporting fresh to locally strong NE to E winds 
across the offshores N of the Greater Antilles, including the
southern and central Bahamas and the Windward Passage. Seas in
this area are up to 11 ft. Over the far E Atlantic, a surface 
trough extends from 26N22W to 21N28W, which is tightening the 
gradient of pressure and supporting moderate to fresh NE to E 
winds E of 37W, including the Canary Islands. It is also now
generating scattered moderate convection from 23N to 27N between
19W and 24W. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere. 

For the forecast west of 55W, winds and seas will only slowly 
decrease through the weekend as the high weakens and slides 
eastward. An inverted surface trough will from Hispaniola 
northward into the open Atlantic by Sun night, weakening winds 
further. A cold front is expected to exit the southeastern U.S. 
early Mon and move slowly southeastward, reaching from 31N70W to 
South Florida by Tue morning. 

$$ 
Konarik