137 
AXNT20 KNHC 142200
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Apr 15 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2130 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W, then 
continues SW to 02N25W. The ITCZ extends from 02N25W to 00N33W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 03N between 17W and 
33W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A ridge dominates the Gulf region. Under the influence of this 
system, moderate E to SE winds dominate, except fresh to locally
strong NE to E winds in the Florida Straits, offshore W Cuba, and
offshore the Yucatan Peninsula, where the pressure gradient is
enhanced locally. Seas are moderate, except for slight in the NE
basin.

For the forecast, a ridge extends from high pressure over the 
west- central Atlantic across Florida into the northern Gulf. This
pattern will maintain moderate to fresh E to SE winds and mostly 
moderate seas through Sat, except in the NE and N-central parts of
the basin where mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to 
moderate seas will prevail. Expect stronger winds to pulse off the
Yucatan Peninsula each night through Sat. Looking ahead, fresh to
strong NE winds and building seas will follow a cold front moving
across the northern Gulf Sun and Sun night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Developing low pressure N of Puerto Rico is inducing scattered
moderate convection over the far NE basin over waters near Puerto
Rico and the Virgin Islands. W of this feature, high pressure
building SW from the western Atlantic is supporting strong NE
winds through Windward Passage, S of Cuba, and between Haiti and
Jamaica. Locally rough seas are impacting these waters. The
gradient between this building high and the Colombian low is
leading to similar strong winds and rough seas offshore Colombia.
Elsewhere over the western and central Caribbean, moderate to
fresh NE winds and moderate seas prevail, with gentle trades and
moderate seas in the east. 

For the forecast, high pressure over the west-central Atlantic 
combined with the Colombian low will maintain fresh to locally 
strong trade winds and rough seas off the coast of Colombia 
overnight. Fresh to strong northeast winds and building seas will 
prevail south of Cuba, in the Windward Passage, and south of 
Hispaniola overnight as well. Winds and seas will diminish across 
the basin late in the week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is just N of Puerto Rico generating scattered 
showers with embedded thunderstorms from 18N to 22N between 58W
and 68W. Low pressure of 1012 mb has formed this afternoon near 
20N64W in association with this feature. Fresh to strong NE winds 
and seas of 8 to 12 ft are found near and behind the 
aforementioned frontal boundary in a zone N of Hispaniola and 
Cuba, through the Turks and Caicos, to 25N, between 64W and the 
Bahamas. Farther N and W, winds and seas gradually taper off to 
light to gentle and slight, respectively, offshore NE Florida, as 
high pressure settles southward from offshore the Mid-Atlantic 
U.S. E of the front, high pressure of 1027 mb located NW of the 
Madeira Islands dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast 
region. Fresh to strong N to NE winds up to 30 kt, and seas up to 
11 ft in long period NW swell prevail N of 20N and E of 20W, 
including the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate
dominate the tropical Atlantic, S of 20N. Elsewhere, moderate or 
weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. 

For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front reaching from 
28N55W to 1014 mb low pressure north of Puerto Rico will weaken 
into a broad trough through tonight. The trough will drift west 
toward Hispaniola on Wed, and the southeastern Bahamas on Thu, 
then dissipate Fri. Strong NE winds and rough seas will persist 
west of the trough through mid week, with conditions gradually 
improving thereafter as the trough weakens and leaves weak high 
pressure over the region. Looking ahead, strong N winds and 
building seas will follow a front moving off the coast of 
northeast Florida Sun night.

$$
Konarik