000
AXNT20 KNHC 250436
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Apr 25 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0400 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07.5N13W and extends
to 0.5N23W. The ITCZ continues from 0.5N23W to south of the
equator at 24W and to 04S38W. Numerous moderate to scattered 
strong convection is noted from 08S to the equator between 25W and
36W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 01N to 07N 
between 11W and 17W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Locally fresh NE winds are noted just north of the Yucatan 
Peninsula as a surface trough develops in the region. Otherwise, 
weak ridging extends over much of the Gulf, supporting gentle to 
locally moderate E to SE winds over the basin. Recent buoy and 
altimeter satellite data show 2 to 4 ft seas prevail over the 
Gulf. 

For the forecast, a ridge across the Gulf waters, combined with a
coastal trough near Mexico, will support moderate to fresh SE 
winds and moderate seas over the western half of the Gulf, and 
gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas over the 
eastern part of the basin through the middle of next week. In 
addition, a diurnal trough will pulse moderate to fresh winds off 
the Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings through Wed night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extending from southeast to northwest Cuba is 
supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms in the lee of Cuba 
and through the Windward Passage. Otherwise, a weak pressure 
gradient is supporting mainly gentle E to SE winds over the 
Caribbean. Seas of 2 to 3 ft prevail over the basin, as noticed on
recent buoy and altimeter satellite data. 

For the forecast, high pressure situated N of the basin will 
continue to weaken over the next couple of days as the
aforementioned trough lifts NE during the weekend before 
dissipating on Mon. This weather pattern will support a weaker 
than usual pressure gradient across the Caribbean Sea into Mon, 
resulting in mainly moderate or weaker winds and slight to 
moderate seas across the entire basin, except in the Gulf of 
Honduras where moderate winds will reach fresh speeds at night 
through Wed. Otherwise, winds are forecast to reach moderate to 
fresh speeds over the east and central Caribbean Mon night through
mid-week as the pressure gradient builds between a developing 
trough NE of the southern Bahamas and high pressure W of the 
Canary Islands extending a ridge SW to the NE Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extending from southeastern Cuba to 22.5N69.5W is
supporting scattered moderate convection, mainly off the northern
coast of the Dominican Republic. Gusty and erratic winds and
building seas can be expected near thunderstorms. Weak ridging is
noted to the north of this feature over the Bahamas and off the
coast of Florida, supporting moderate or weaker winds and 2 to 4
ft seas. Farther east, an increasing pressure gradient between a
1018 mb high centered near 28N49.5W and cold fronts passing to the
north is supporting fresh to strong W winds in the central
Atlantic, mainly north of 30N between 50W and 65W. Altimeter and
buoy data denote 7 to 9 ft seas in this region. Elsewhere, a
surface trough extends from 31N36W to 26N48W and moderate N to NW
winds are noted to the north. Residual rough seas of 8 to 9 ft
prevail in this region. Off the coast of NW Africa, a cold front
progressing southward is supporting fresh to strong NW winds and 8
to 10 ft seas east of the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh NE
winds and locally rough seas to 8 ft are noted farther south to
near the Cape Verde Islands. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough
from southeast Cuba through the southern Bahamas is forecast to 
lift NE over the weekend, likely developing a low SE Bahamas on 
Sat before dissipating on Mon. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds and
rough seas over the NE offshore waters will prevail through Sat 
evening as a cold front clips the region late Sat into early Sun. 
A second cold front is forecast to enter the waters off NE Florida
by Sun night, extend from 31N70W to South Florida by Mon night, 
and past Bermuda to 23N67W by Tue evening before dissipating Wed 
night.

$$
ADAMS