000
AXNT20 KNHC 062315
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Jan 6 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Agadir Gale Warning: A 1035 mb high is analyzed near 39N24W. The 
enhanced pressure gradient between this high and low pressure over
the Mediterranean supports strong to gale-force NE winds offshore
Morocco, currently N of 20N between the W coast of Africa and 
35W. Rough seas are seen in this area as well. Winds are expected 
to continue at gale-force speeds with severe gusts through Wednesday
afternoon, and Meteo-France has accordingly issued a Gale Warning
for the Agadir zone to 07/09 UTC. 

For more information, please visit Meteo-France's website at:
wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W and extends to
03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to 04N41W to 03N50W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03.5N to 07.5N east 
of 18W, as well as from 04N to 08N between 24W and 50W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough extends over the northeastern Gulf from the
Florida Big Bend to 29N85W to 25N88W. No significant convection 
is occurring near this trough. Another trough, an old frontal
remnant, extends through the Straits of Florida between 80W and
88W. Otherwise, surface ridging prevails across the Gulf, with a 
1018 mb high centered along the Florida coast near 26.5N82.5W. 
Moderate to locally fresh S to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are 
occurring over the western Gulf, with winds then becoming SW to
the north of 26N and into the Louisiana coast. Elsewhere, mainly 
gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh S to SE winds 
and moderate seas are expected west of 95W through Wed. Widespread
moderate to fresh S to SE winds will develop over the central and
western Gulf by Wed night, with strong winds and rough seas 
possible offshore of Texas and northeastern Mexico on Thu, as a 
storm system forms over the central U.S. A strong cold front is 
expected to enter the northwestern Gulf Fri night into Sat, with 
widespread fresh to strong winds and rough seas prevailing in the 
wake of the front, as it sweeps across the basin this weekend. 
Gale force winds will be possible offshore of Tampico and 
Veracruz, Mexico Sat through Sun night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An Atlantic cold front extends southwestward across the northern
Leeward Islands to near 16N68W. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds
prevail north of this boundary and extend westward south of
Hispaniola, where scattered weak to moderate showers prevail. Seas
there are generally 2 to 4 ft. A 1012 mb low center previously 
near 17.5N80W has drifted westward and opened up into a trough, 
extending from 20N83W to the south-southeast to near 11N78W. 
Moderate NE to N winds prevail from the lee of Cuba southward 
across the western basin W of the trough, where seas are 3 to 6 
ft. Moderate or weaker winds and 1-3 ft seas prevail elsewhere. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and locally rough 
seas will develop over the south-central Caribbean this evening 
as the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area 
and the Colombian low tightens. Winds may pulse to near- gale 
force offshore of Colombia each night starting on Wed. The 
tightening pressure gradient will also support pulsing of moderate
to fresh NE winds through the Windward Passage, in the lee of 
Cuba and south of Hispaniola through late week. High pressure will
further build north of the area by late week, supporting 
widespread fresh trade winds over much of the central Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on a
Gale Warning offshore Agadir.

A cold front extends from 31N47W to a 1010 mb low near 23N59W. A 
cold front then extends from this low southwestward across the
northern Leeward Islands. Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms
are occurring within 240 nm either side of the front, north of 
20N between 43W and 60W. Mostly moderate winds are on either side
of the front and low. A shear line is analyzed to the NW of the 
front from 30N54W to 21N66W to 23N77W. Moderate to fresh NE winds
prevail N of 20N and within 300 nm W of the shearline, with a 90
nm band of fresh to strong NE along the shearline to the north of
25N. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft W of the front and low, except 8
to 9 ft within the band of fresh to strong winds. A ridge extends
from a 1024 mb Bermuda High southwest to the NW Bahamas, and is
producing moderate or less anticyclonic winds across the waters
north of 25N and west of 73W, becoming fresh SW winds north of 30N
between 74W and 77W. Seas there are 3 to 5 ft in N-NE swell and to
6 ft in the fresh SW winds.

Surface ridging prevails across much of the remaining basin.
Outside of the region mentioned in the Special Features section,
fresh to strong trades and moderate seas are seen from 05N to 14N
between 25W and 50W. Much of the remaining Atlantic is seeing
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between high 
pressure building across the area and a slow moving cold front in
the central Atlantic will support moderate to fresh NE to E winds
over much of the waters east of 65W. Rough seas N of 23N and east
of 65W will subside through Wed morning. Elsewhere, locally fresh
S to SW winds are expected well offshore of Florida into Wed as a
surface trough develops to the north. High pressure will further 
build across the area by late week.

$$
Stripling