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Post-Tropical Cyclone Polo Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ41 KNHC 192032
TCDEP1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Polo Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212020
100 PM PST Thu Nov 19 2020

A few convective cells continue to pulse over 100 n mi northeast of
Polo's center, but overall the cyclone has not produced persistent,
organized deep convection since yesterday evening.  Therefore, Polo
is being designated as a remnant low.  A recent ASCAT pass sampled
the eastern part of Polo's circulation and showed winds around 25
kt, so it is assumed that 30-kt winds are still occurring closer to
the center.  Moderate westerly shear, marginally warm waters, and a
dry environment should cause Polo's winds to gradually decrease,
and the circulation is expected to open up into a trough by 36
hours, per the latest global model guidance.

Polo is moving just south of due west (265/10 kt), steered by a
low- to mid-level ridge to its north.  This general motion is
expected to continue until the low dissipates, and the NHC track
forecast is down the middle of the tightly packed guidance envelope.

For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 16.9N 121.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  20/0600Z 16.9N 122.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  20/1800Z 16.8N 125.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg