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Post-Tropical Cyclone Teresa Forecast Discussion


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000
WTNT44 KNHC 252044
TCDAT4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Teresa Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192021
500 PM AST Sat Sep 25 2021

Teresa has continued to consist of just a swirl of low-level clouds 
since last night. Although a convective band persists a couple 
hundred miles northeast of the low center, the system no longer 
meets the definition of a tropical cyclone. Strong 
west-southwesterly wind shear should prevent any regeneration of 
convection near the center. All of the global models show the 
remnant low degenerating into an open trough by Sunday morning.  

Teresa has been moving eastward or 090/4 kt during the past 12 
hours.  A turn to the northeast is expected within the next couple 
of hours as the cyclone moves in the southwesterly flow ahead of a 
deep-layer trough.  The northeastward motion should continue until 
the low dissipates Sunday morning.

Additional information on Post-Tropical Cyclone Teresa can be found 
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under 
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at 
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/2100Z 34.4N  64.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  26/0600Z 35.7N  63.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Latto