036 
WTNT43 KNHC 220859
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
500 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025
 
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been
extremely useful in showing that the center of Melissa has
re-formed to the northeast of the previous center.  Earlier
scatterometer data had already shown an elongated circulation, and
the very deep convection combined with the moderate westerly shear
has caused the re-formation.  The initial intensity is kept at 45
kt, a compromise between somewhat lower aircraft winds but also
lower central pressure, now at 1000 mb.
 
The initial motion is estimated, with low confidence, to be 295/6.
Melissa is forecast to move very slowly to the northwest and
north-northwest during the next few days into a weakness by an
approaching mid-latitude trough.  There continues to be a very
large uncertainty on whether the storm would turn more into the
weakness and threaten Haiti or Cuba, or whether it would turn
more westward to the south of Jamaica as a ridge rebuilds over the
Bahamas, with reliable models in either camp.  This appears to be
somewhat tied to the storm's structure, with the less vertically
coherent model solutions generally ending up on the western side of
the track envelope this weekend, and stronger initial storm
representations on the northeastern side.  With such a distinct
track bifurcation noted in the guidance (excluding the consensus
aids) and dependence on structure, this should be considered an
extremely uncertain forecast, and significant changes could be
required.  The model trends have been favoring the more westward
solutions recently, and the official forecast is nudged in that
direction at long range.
 
Melissa is likely to be encountering moderate wind shear for the
next few days, counteracted by the very warm and moist conditions
in the Caribbean Sea.  This pattern favors slow intensification 
through that time.  At long range, some relaxation of this shear is 
anticipated with the more equatorward storm solutions showing the 
most conducive environment.  The new NHC wind speed prediction
is much higher than the last one by day 5, but still lower than the 
model consensus due to continuity constraints.  While there is 
still a large forecast intensity uncertainty, the chances of a major
hurricane increase if this forecast were to trend farther southwest
at long range, similar to many of the recent regional hurricane
model forecasts.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Melissa is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of
the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Jamaica through this weekend,
bringing a risk of significant flash flooding and landslides.
 
2. Hurricane conditions are possible in the southwestern peninsula
of Haiti where a Hurricane Watch is in effect.  A Tropical Storm
Watch is in effect for Jamaica.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be completed by Thursday.
 
3. There is significant uncertainty in the track and intensity
forecast of Melissa.  Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and Cuba
should continue to monitor the latest forecasts.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/0900Z 14.3N  73.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 14.7N  74.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 15.2N  74.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 15.6N  75.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  24/0600Z 16.0N  75.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  24/1800Z 16.3N  75.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  25/0600Z 16.7N  75.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  26/0600Z 17.0N  76.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  27/0600Z 17.0N  76.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Blake