Skip Navigation Links   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification

Updated 25 March 2015


  1. Introduction
  2. Forecast verification procedures
  3. Annual NHC verification reports
  4. Official five-year mean errors and distributions
  5. Official error trends
  6. Model error trends
  7. NHC official forecast error database
  8. Performance measures and goals
  9. References

9. References

Aberson, S. D., 1998: Five-day tropical cyclone track forecasts in the North Atlantic basin. Wea. Forecasting, 13, 1005-1015.

DeMaria, M., and J.M. Gross, 2003: Hurricane! Coping with Disaster, edited by Robert Simpson, Chapter 4: Evolution of Tropical Cyclone Forecast Models. American Geophysical Union, ISBN 0-87590-297-9, 360p.

Jarvinen, B. R., and C. J. Neumann, 1979: Statistical forecasts of tropical cyclone intensity for the North Atlantic basin. NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS NHC-10, 22 pp.

Knaff, J.A., M. DeMaria, B. Sampson, and J.M. Gross, 2003: Statistical, five-day tropical cyclone intensity forecasts derived from climatology and persistence. Wea. Forecasting, 18, 80-92.

Neumann, C. B., 1972: An alternate to the HURRAN (hurricane analog) tropical cyclone forecast system. NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS SR-62, 24 pp.

Back to Beginning: Introduction

Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 25-Mar-2015 18:14:34 UTC