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National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification


Updated 6 May 2014

Contents

  1. Introduction
  2. Forecast verification procedures
  3. Annual NHC verification reports
  4. Official five-year mean errors and distributions
  5. Official error trends
  6. Model error trends
  7. NHC official forecast error database
  8. Performance measures and goals
  9. References

3. Annual NHC verification reports

Links are given below to the historical annual NHC verification reports from 1968-2011. The statistics contained in these reports were based on forecast and verification procedures in place at the time each report was written, which often differ from current practices (e.g., depressions were not verified in these annual reports until 2001). In addition, there have been changes in the tropical cyclone best track database over the years (e.g., the upgrade of 1992's Hurricane Andrew from category 4 to category 5). Consequently, the verification statistics that appear in these annual reports may differ from those presented elsewhere in these pages based on current practices and datasets.

 









1968 1969
1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
2010 2011 2012 2013

Note: You may need to install the free Acrobat® Reader to view and print these documents.

Next: Official five-year mean errors and distributions



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Page last modified: Tuesday, 06-May-2014 20:14:17 UTC