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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
Satellite imagery indicates that the area of low pressure located 
about 1500 miles east of the Windward Islands continues to become 
better organized. Environmental conditions appear favorable for 
further development of this system, and a tropical depression or 
storm is likely to form in the next day or so while it moves 
quickly west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.  
This system is expected to be near or north of the northern Leeward 
Islands on Thursday and Friday, and interests there should continue 
to monitor its progress. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. Yucatan Peninsula and Southwestern Gulf:
A trough of low pressure currently moving across the Yucatan 
Peninsula is expected to emerge into the Bay of Campeche during the 
day on Tuesday. The system is producing a large area of disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms, and some slow development of this system 
is possible over the Bay of Campeche before it moves inland by the 
middle portion of this week. Regardless of development, areas of 
heavy rain and gusty winds are likely across portions of the Yucatan 
Peninsula, Belize, and southern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.



Forecaster Papin/Blake