National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification
Updated 3 April 2013
Contents
- Introduction
- Forecast verification
procedures
- Annual NHC verification
reports
- Official five-year mean
errors and distributions
- Official error trends
- Model error trends
- NHC official forecast
error database
- Performance measures and
goals
- References
5. Official error trends
This section contains
information on NHC forecast errors over the years. The
verifications below are based on the NHC best track database as of
5 February 2013, and, except as noted, follow the verification
procedures given in Section 2.
All verifications in this section include subtropical
systems, and are homogeneous with the best track CLIPER5 and
Decay-SHIFOR5 models. Because forecasts for non-developing
depressions are not available in digital form prior to 1989,
verifications that include years before 1989 are given for
tropical storms and hurricanes only.
Atlantic Basin Tropical Storms and Hurricanes:
Track Errors (1970 - 2012)
Annual average official track errors for Atlantic basin tropical
storms and hurricanes for the period 1970-2012, with
least-squares trend lines superimposed.
Official track errors for Atlantic basin tropical storms and
hurricanes by decade.
Annual
average official track errors for Atlantic basin tropical storms
and hurricanes for the period 1970-2012. (pdf)
Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones: Track
Errors (1989 - 2012)
Annual average official track errors for Atlantic basin tropical
cyclones for the period 1989-2012, with least-squares trend
lines
superimposed.
Annual
average official track errors for Atlantic basin tropical
cyclones for the period 1989-2012. (pdf)
Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones: Intensity
Errors (1990 - 2012)
Annual average official intensity errors for Atlantic basin
tropical cyclones for the period 1990-2012, with least-squares
trend lines superimposed.
Annual
average official intensity errors for Atlantic basin tropical
cyclones for the period 1990-2012. (pdf)
Eastern North Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones:
Track Errors (1989 - 2012)
Annual average official track errors for eastern North Pacific
basin tropical cyclones for the period 1989-2012, with
least-squares trend lines superimposed.
Annual
average official track errors for eastern North Pacific basin
tropical cyclones for the period 1989-2012. (pdf)
Eastern North Pacific
Basin Tropical Cyclones: Intensity Errors (1990 - 2012)
Annual average official intensity errors for eastern North
Pacific basin tropical cyclones for the period 1990-2012, with
least-squares trend lines superimposed.
Annual
average official intensity errors for eastern North Pacific
basin tropical cyclones for the period 1990-2012. (pdf)
Next: Model error trends
|
