WTNT34 KWNH 310905
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Harvey Advisory Number 44
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL092017
400 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017
...FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS FAR EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA WITH HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.3N 92.0W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM S OF MONROE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNE OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Flood and flash flood warnings and watches are in effect from
eastern Texas through parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and
into western portions of the Tennessee Valley and the lower Ohio
Valley.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Harvey
was located near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 92.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17
km/h) and is expected to continue this motion over the next 48
hours. This forecast track would take Harvey into northwestern
Mississippi by Thursday afternoon, the western Tennessee Valley
region on Friday, and into the lower Ohio Valley early Saturday
before anticipated dissipation by Saturday afternoon.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain from
far eastern Arkansas, northern Mississippi, northeastward across
western to central Tennessee, western to central Kentucky and into
southern Ohio. Locally higher totals of 6 to 10 inches possible
across far northern Mississippi, western Tennessee into southwest
Kentucky. These rains will enhance the flash flooding risk across
these areas, especially from far northern Mississippi, western
Tennessee and into far southwest Kentucky.
Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue in and
around Houston, Beaumont/Port Arthur, and eastward into southwest
Louisiana for the rest of the week. the expected heavy rains
spreading northeastward from Louisiana into western Kentucky may
also lead to flash flooding and increased river and small stream
flooding. Do not attempt to travel in the affected area if you are
in a safe place. Do not drive into flooded roadways.
For the latest rainfall and wind reports associated with Hurricane
Harvey, see the companion storm summary at
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Santorelli
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 31/0900Z 32.3N 92.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
12H 31/1800Z 33.5N 90.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 01/0600Z 35.1N 88.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 01/1800Z 36.3N 86.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 02/0600Z 37.5N 85.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
60H 02/1800Z 38.7N 84.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
72H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED
NNNN
