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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Near the Southeastern United States (AL92):
Satellite wind data indicate that the system located about 150 miles 
off the northeast Florida coast has become better defined today with 
an area of strong winds located on its east side. Showers and 
thunderstorms are also persisting near and to the east of the 
center. A short-lived subtropical or tropical depression could 
form later today or on Saturday while the system drifts generally 
north-northwestward. This low is expected to move inland over the 
southeastern U.S. by early Sunday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane 
Hunter aircraft is currently en route, and the data they collect 
should provide more details on the system's structure. Regardless of 
development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of 
west-central and southwestern Florida through early Saturday, and 
across coastal sections of the Carolinas beginning later on 
Saturday. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.



Forecaster Cangialosi/Beven