NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR SAN ANDRES ISLAND...IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING ACROSS THIS REGION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... CLOUDINESS AND HEAVY RAINS COULD SPREAD OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN NNNN
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