NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
NHC Graphical Outlook Archive (Text)
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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY BEING INVESTIGATED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A SMALL CIRCULATION NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WELL REMOVED FROM THE MAIN AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE DISTURBED WEATHER HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY...AND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM NOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER PASCH/FRANKLIN
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