NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST EAST OF BELIZE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS. ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE NOT SIGNIFICANTLY FALLING...SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE... 20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...RESULTING IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 2. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 675 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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