NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT FRI OCT 14 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SMALL SURFACE LOW LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES WEST OF BERMUDA. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE... 20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. 2. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL AMERICA...CUBA AND ADJACENT ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...RESULTING IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN NNNN
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