NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
NHC Graphical Outlook Archive (Text)
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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. A SURFACE LOW LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES EAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 2. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WHILE SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE FALLEN IN THIS AREA...ANY DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND GUATEMALA AS THIS SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN NNNN
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