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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1175 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR 20 MPH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 2. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 3. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 160 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE THIS DISTURBANCE MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. 4. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 700 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER STEWART NNNN
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