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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 475 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. 2. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE ATLANTIC ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 3. THE REMNANTS OF EMILY ARE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND...MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 4. A NEW AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS EMERGED FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA AND IS LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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