NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
NHC Graphical Outlook Archive (Text)
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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2009 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED... CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING MINIMAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 2. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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