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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280241
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
119 UTC Wed Jun 28 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Tropical Storm Dora is centered near 19.7N 112.3W at 28/0300 UTC
moving west-northwest or 285 degrees at 11 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained winds have 
diminished to 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. The convection associated
with Dora continues to decrease, with the center now exposed to 
the west of a small area of deep convection. Satellite imagery 
shows an area of scattered to numerous moderate convection
between 60nm and 120 nm of center, in the eastern semicircle. 
Dora should continue to rapidly weaken as it moves over colder 
sea surface temperatures, and the system is expected to become a 
remnant low in about 24 hours. Swells generated by Dora will 
continue to affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico 
through early Wednesday, and also affect portions of the coast of
the southern Baja California peninsula over the next day or two.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip 
current conditions. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under 
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 92W north of 09N. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted over parts of the Mexican
States of Chiapas and Oaxaca, likely in association with this 
wave. Similar convection is also noted near the southern end of 
the wave axis, forecast to move westward over the eastern Pacific
Ocean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W across Panama and Costa
Rica to 10N90W to 08N96W to 11N106W to 09N116W to 10N125W to 
09N132W. The ITCZ axis continues from 09N132W to beyond 06N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 11N between 90W and
95W, and from 08N to 10N between 111W AND 122W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Outside of the influence of Dora, gentle to moderate winds prevail
in the waters west of Baja California. Light to gentle winds are
off the coast of SW Mexico and across the Gulf of California. 
Seas are 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California and 4-6 ft elsewhere. 
Little change is expected during the next several days. Winds are
forecast to briefly increase to 20 kt over the northern Gulf of 
California between 1800 and 0600 UTC on Wednesday and Thursday.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gentle to moderate SW to W winds are expected across most of the
region, except for southerly winds between Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands. Long period SW swell propagating into the 
region will build seas of 8-9 ft tonight and Wednesday, with the
exception of the lee of the Galapagos Islands.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure located north of area extends a ridge across the
waters north of the convergence zone and west of 120W. The most 
recent scatterometer data indicate moderate to locally fresh NE
winds from 10N to 20N west of 130W. Seas are generally 5-7 ft 
within these winds. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere
N of 10N west of 120W. Winds and seas are expected to remain 
below advisory criteria through the remainder of the week, with 
the exception of the south waters. Cross equatorial long period 
SW swell will continue to propagate across the south waters, 
mainly E of 120W, reaching the area S of a line from 07N82W to 
08N95W to 06N110W to 00N120W, except in the lee of the Galapagos 
Islands, by late Wednesday. Expect building seas of 8-10 ft with
this swell event, but the highest seas will remain south of the 
Equator.

$$
GR