Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110838
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE MAR 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0815 UTC.                           

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

NO MONSOON TROUGH IS PRESENT. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N114W 
TO 09N131W TO BEYOND 05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

WEST OF 110W...A 1033 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED WELL 
N OF THE AREA OFF THE COAST OF OREGON NEAR 43N127 WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO 23N W OF 120W. SEVERAL SHIP OBSERVATIONS 
INDICATED 20 TO 25 KT NE TO E WINDS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A 
SURFACE TROUGH NE OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. A FEW SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE NEAR 25N135W...WHERE A WEAKENING UPPER 
TROUGH IS LIFTING NE.  

THE SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH AN ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED SEAS 
OF 8 TO 10 FT IN THE SAME AREA...INDICATIVE OF NW SWELL COVERING 
THE AREA NW OF A LINE FROM THE CENTRAL COAST OF THE BAJA 
PENINSULA TO 06N140W. GLOBAL WAVE MODELS INDICATE THE SWELL WILL 
DECAY BELOW 8 FT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF NW 
SWELL WILL PASS 30N140W STARTING WED...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF 
SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT REACHING AS FAR A LINE FROM 30N125W TO 
24N140W BY LATE WED. 

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE NEAR 14N120W. THIS IS 
RELATED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 
20N125W TO 10N115W. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY AS 
THE UPPER TROUGH DAMPENS OUT.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...A SPLIT FLOW 
PATTERN DEVELOPS W OF 140W...WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH 
AMPLIFYING N OF 10N ALONG 145W. THE GFS DEVELOPS A RELATED 
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 135W AND 140W BY THURSDAY 
WITH STRONG TRADES TO THE NORTH. THERE MAY BE CONVECTIVE 
FEEDBACK ISSUE WITH THIS...AND THE GRIDDED FORECASTS FAVOR THE 
MORE CONSERVATIVE ECMWF/UKMET WITH REGARD TO THIS FEATURE WITH 
SLIGHTLY WEAKER TRADE WINDS. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT TO MODERATE VARIABLE WINDS WILL 
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING NW TO N 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS 
THE FAR NORTHERN GULF ON WED AS HIGH PRES OFF THE OREGON COAST 
SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...DIMINISHING TO BELOW 20 KT 
THROUGH EARLY THU. SEAS OF 1-3 FT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TUE 
NIGHT...BUILDING TO 3-5 FT N OF 28N WED AS WINDS INCREASE.

GAP WINDS...WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE AND 
VARIABLE ACROSS THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA...PAPAGAYO 
AND PANAMA THROUGH WED...EXCEPT NE-E AT MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS 
IN PAPAGAYO DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS DURING 
PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS WILL BE PRIMARILY 3-5 FT. LOOKING 
AHEAD...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING A 
STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO WED THROUGH 
THU. A NORTHERLY GALE FORCE WIND TEHUANTEPEC EVENT IS POSSIBLE 
THU MORNING THROUGH SUNRISE FRI.

$$
CHRISTENSEN