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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230346
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Feb 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

None.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

There is no ITCZ over the forecast waters north of the equator. 
As is typical for this time of year, the Eastern Pacific ITCZ is 
currently evident across the southern hemisphere, and just S of 
the Equator.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of Tehuantepec...the cold front across the Gulf of Mexico 
has shifted eastward of the Yucatan Channel this evening, while 
winds across the SW Gulf of Mexico have shifted W. The pressure 
gradient across the Tehuantepec region continues to slowly 
weaken, and early afternoon scatterometer data showed only a 
narrow plume of N winds 20-25 kt across and downstream of 
Tehuantepec. Seas there have subsided to 6-8 ft. Winds will 
continue to diminish overnight through Thursday to around 15 kt, 
and then shift S to SW on Friday, ahead of the next cold front 
to approach the Gulf of Mexico. 

West of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, the pressure gradient has begun 
to slowly tighten across the region, between building high 
pressure west of the Baja California peninsula and a trough 
along western Mexico. Fresh to strong northerly winds prevail 
across north and central portions of the Baja California waters, 
and extend westward to 122W. Seas across these waters are 
running 7-11 ft in mixed NW swell, and 5-7 ft over the southern 
Baja California waters to offshore of Cabo Corrientes. Inside 
the Gulf of California, moderate NW winds generally prevail, 
with seas 3-5 ft across the southern waters and 1-3 ft over the 
northern waters. High pressure centered over the NE Pacific will 
build SE across these offshore waters tonight through Friday to 
further tighten the pressure gradient. Winds offshore of the 
Baja Peninsula will increase modestly during this time, with the 
potential for isolated areas of 25-30 kt winds across the Bahia 
de Sebastian Vizcaino tonight. The high pressure NW of the area 
will weaken by Saturday in response to low pressure approaching 
from the west, with winds diminishing accordingly. NW swell will 
continue propagating SE during the next few days and maintain 
seas greater than 8 ft off the coast of Baja California, but are 
expected to subside below 8 ft by late Friday night. Another 
cold front will introduce another round of NW swell to Baja 
California Norte by Monday.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds will prevail through Saturday. Winds will
freshen off the coast of Central America Saturday night through 
Sunday night as offshore gap winds develop in response to 
building high pressure over the Caribbean.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

Slowly subsiding NW swell continues to propagate across the 
forecast waters. Seas greater than 8 ft cover much of the 
forecast waters north of 06N and west of 118W. Evening satellite-
derived altimeter data indicate seas as high as 12 ft near 
09N126W, where the NW swell is mixing with moderate wind waves 
in the trade wind belt. Areal coverage of seas greater than 8 ft 
have begun to decrease and will continue to do so for the 
remainder of the week as the high pressure ridge to the north 
and low pressure trough over eastern Mexico weaken. By Friday 
seas will subside below 8 ft over most of the forecast area, 
except over the NW waters due to the arrival of a cold front 
which will usher in fresh NW swell. Combined seas associated 
with this swell will peak around 12 ft Saturday night over the 
NW waters. Strong to near gale winds are expected both ahead of, 
and behind, the front as it crosses the northern waters this 
weekend. 

$$
Stripling