000 AXPZ20 KNHC 251601 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED NOV 25 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS ANALYZED FROM 08N78W TO 05N95W TO 08N113W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 05N TO 11N TO THE E OF 85W AND WITHIN 30 NM OF 07N89W AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 140W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE AT 10N142W HAS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING N TO A CREST NEAR 35N140W. THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY N OF 15N W OF 125W. A TROPICAL UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED AT 04N123W WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING NNE TO A CREST ALONG 30N NEAR 110W. ABUNDANT UPPER MOISTURE IS NOTED UNDER THIS RIDGE... ROUGHLY FROM 15N TO 28N BETWEEN 123W AND 105W. BROAD UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 15N TO THE E OF 90W AND IS ENHANCING THE ITCZ CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED...WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE NOW SPREADING N OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER CALIFORNIA HAS A TROUGH EXTENDING S THROUGH ANOTHER SMALL UPPER CYCLONE AT 26N121W WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING SW TO NEAR 12N126W. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS SWINGING E ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF DRY UPPER AIR S OF 23N BETWEEN 103W AND 93W SUPPRESSING ITCZ CONVECTION. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA W OF 105W WITH NE TRADES AT 20 TO 25 KT S OF THE RIDGE. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS N OF THE AREA FRI INCREASING THE AREA OF NE TRADES. SEAS TO 12 FT ARE CURRENTLY NOTED SW OF THE RIDGE WITH ANOTHER SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THU MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 16 FT. NW SWELLS ARE COVERING THE ENTIRE AREA W OF 112W. ...GAP WINDS... EASTERLY TRADES IN THE W CARIBBEAN WILL MAINTAIN SURGES TO 20 KT IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NW CONUS COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING IN NORTHERLY WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS DIMINISHING THE WINDS BELOW 20 KT. NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PICK UP TO 20 TO 25 KT THIS MORNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND FURTHER INCREASE TO A GALE AROUND SUNSET TODAY AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO A MINIMAL STORM EARLY FRI. $$ NELSON
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