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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300908
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
738 UTC Thu Jun 30 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0630 UTC.

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to low pres near 09N101W
1010 MB to 13N109W to low pres near 12N114W 1010 MB to 14N126W to
low pres near 11N131W 1011 MB to low pres near 08N136W 1011 MB to
beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
present within 300 nm of the monsoon trough axis E of 104W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is found within 300
nm of the monsoon trough axis W of 104W. Isolated strong
convection is occurring from 11N to 15N between 111W and 120W.

...DISCUSSION...   

N of 15N E of 120W:

A NNW to SSE oriented trough will remain over the Baja California
peninsula and northern Gulf of California through this weekend.
The trough will maintain gentle to moderate S flow across the
Gulf waters.

A surge of large NW swell generated by strong to gale force winds
along the California coast will cause seas N of 26N and W of 118W to
build to between 8 and 9 ft on Sat. These swell will begin to
subside on Sat night and allow seas in this area to fall below 8
ft on Sun.

A high pres ridge extends southeastward from 23N120W to 18N109W.
Gentle anticyclonic winds are noted in the vicinity of the ridge
from 20N to 25N between 110W and 120W.

Fresh N winds are pulsing across the Gulf of Tehuantepec this
morning. Seas will briefly build to 8 ft today as the resultant
NE wind waves mix with long period SW swell. Lighter winds are
expected from this afternoon through this weekend.

S of 15N E of 120W:

Gentle to moderate monsoonal flow prevails S of the monsoon
trough, while gentle to moderate NE to E winds are observed N of
the monsoon trough.

Fresh NE winds are blowing across the Gulf of Papagayo. Seas will
build to 8 ft today as NE wind waves and SW swell mix. Lighter
winds and seas less than 8 ft are expected tonight through Fri
night. Gap winds could cause seas to build to 8 ft once again in
the Gulf of Papagayo on Sat.

Long period SW swell are maintaining combined seas just above 8
ft N of 02N between 90W and 115W. The swell are subsiding and seas
will drop below 8 ft by Fri evening.

Guidance still indicates a surface low will develop near 10N99W
on Fri night, then head generally WNW while gradually
strengthening over the weekend. The low will track near 12N112W on
Mon night.

W of 120W:

A broad ridge dominates the EPAC waters N of 15N. A swath of 7 to
9 ft seas dominated by NE swell is observed N of 19N between 124W
and 135W. These conditions will spread SW through tonight. A
reinforcing surge of large N swell will cause seas N of 24N to
build to between 8 and 11 ft on Sat. These swell will begin to
subside on Sat night and allow seas in this area to fall below 8
ft by Mon.

$$
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