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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171520
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Jan 17 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A meandering trough extends from 05N77W to 02N81W to 02N87W to 
05N92W to 02N100W. The ITCZ axis extends from 02N102W to 06N115W 
to 09N123W to 05N140W. Random small areas of moderate convection 
are located from 12N to 16N between 1120W and 130W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Satellite imagery shows a surface trough from 24N113W to 27N119W 
west of Baja California drifting southward. Divergent flow aloft 
is enhancing showers associated with a deep-layer moisture plume 
spreading northeastward from 13N117W across the Cabo Corrientes 
region into central Mexico. Gentle to moderate mainly northwest 
winds prevail off the coast of Baja California and in the Gulf 
of California. Light to gentle northerly winds prevail south and 
east of Acapulco. Seas are 5-6 ft west of Baja California, 2 ft 
or less in the Gulf of California, and 2-5 ft elsewhere. 

Global models indicate a cold front will move into the waters 
off Baja California Norte Thursday, then become diffuse ahead of 
a much stronger cold front that will quickly move across Baja 
California and the Gulf of California Friday and Saturday. The 
second front will be accompanied by fresh to strong winds and 
large northwest swell, expected to build seas to 12-19 ft over 
the waters off Baja California Norte Saturday, and 8-13 ft seas 
off Baja California Sur. This could potentially bring hazardous 
surf conditions to mariners navigating near shore waters.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Northwest winds will pulse to 25 kt late tonight and again late 
Wednesday night across the Gulf of Papagayo, then diminish by 
Thursday night.  Light to gentle variable winds are expected 
Friday.

Light to gentle easterly winds will prevail elsewhere through 
Saturday. Seas will be generally 3-5 ft in the forecast waters.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure centered near 29N136W extends a ridge southeast to 
the Revillagigedo Islands. The gradient between this high and 
lower pressure associated with the ITCZ is supporting an area of 
fresh to strong northeast trade winds from 10N to 14N west of 
126W, with 10-11 ft seas. Fresh trades are found elsewhere from 
06N to 21N west of 113W, with seas to 10 ft in mixed northwest 
swell and northeast wind waves. The strongest trade winds will 
decrease in coverage and shift westward during the next couple 
of days. Fresh trades will remain from 07N to 20N west of 122W, 
with 8-10 ft seas in mixed northeast waves and northwest swell.

A very active jet stream branch is rounding the base of the 
trough across northwest Mexico. Strong west to southwest winds 
are transporting abundant tropical moisture into central Mexico 
north of 17N. Scattered showers are possible with this moisture 
plume. Considerable mid-upper level cloudiness is being advected 
to the northeast with the jet stream. The upper trough will move 
eastward during the next couple of days as high pressure builds 
eastward behind the previously mentioned cold fronts.

Looking ahead, northwest swell with seas to 8-12 ft associated 
with a front moving eastward across the waters north of 25N 
Wednesday and Thursday will be followed by a second front 
expected to sweep southeastward into northern waters Thursday 
night and Friday. Wave model guidance shows large northwest 
swell will propagate southeastward into the waters north of 20N 
behind the second front, with seas building to 15-20 ft in the 
far northern waters east of 130W late Friday into Saturday. 

$$
Mundell

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jan-2017 15:20:17 UTC