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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 271535

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1535 UTC Sat Aug 27 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.


Hurricane Lester centered near 18.0N 118.4W at 27/1500 UTC moving
west or 275 degrees at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure
is 977 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100
kt. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 90 nm in the
northwest and 45 nm southwest semicircles. Lester will continue
on a general westward motion, with an increase in forward speed
during the next couple of days. See latest NHC forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Storm Madeline centered near 15.2N 138.5W at 27/1500 UTC
moving northwest or 310 degrees at 8 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt
with gusts to 55 kt. Latest satellite imagery indicates the center
is becoming more organized slightly to the north of earlier
positions, with scattered moderate to strong convection noted with
90 nm of the center. Madeline will continue on a general northwest
motion in the next couple of days with a decrease in forward
speed, and is expected to move into the Central Pacific tonight.
Madeline is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane once it moves
well west of 140W by Sunday night. See latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC
for more details.


The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 12N95W to low
pressure near 11N108W then terminating near 11N113W. The monsoon
trough resumes near 12N119W and continues to 10N125W terminating
near 13N132W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted within 120 nm north of the axis between 87W and 97W.



The strong winds and high seas associated with Lester that were
impacting Clarion Island yesterday are shifting west of the area
as the hurricane moves farther to the west. Moderate to fresh
southerly winds over the northern Gulf of California between local
troughing and high pressure farther west over the northeast
Pacific will diminish today as the trough weakens. Generally
moderate northwest flow will persist across the remainder of the
waters off Baja California with lighter winds farther south.
Moderate to strong thunderstorms are noted south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, to the north of the monsoon trough axis. Otherwise no
organized convection is noted within 250 nm of the Mexico. Little
change is expected through early next week.


Light and moderate winds will continue to prevail on either side
of the monsoon trough for the next several days, with combined
seas of 4 to 7 ft mainly in cross equatorial southerly swell. 


A broad surface ridge covers the remainder of the area, extending
from 1020 mb high pressure near 29N130W. A weak surface trough extends
from 27N134W to 22N136W, and will move west of 140W Sunday. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and Lester will produce a band
of moderate to fresh winds roughly from 18N to 22N, with combined
seas ranging from 5 to 7 feet. 1010 mb low pressure is located
near Clipperton Island at 11N108W. Convection is minimal near this
low currently, and prospects for tropical cyclone formation remain
low through the next several days at is tracks westward along the
monsoon trough. Model guidance shows at least moderate to fresh
southwesterly monsoon flow into the monsoon trough west of the low
pressure from 10N to 15N between 115W and 120W through early next
week with seas possibly reaching 8 ft.