000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022047
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri May 2 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 09N84W to 
07N110W. The ITCZ extends from 07N110W to beyond 05N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is active from 05N to 08N east of 
105W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure off Baja California continues to weaken ahead of a
cold front approaching from the west. Recent scatterometer 
satellite data indicates mostly gentle to moderate NW breezes 
across the Mexican offshore regions currently, except for 
moderate to fresh NW winds funnelling off the coast of Cabo San 
Lucas. Although the scatterometer pass did not indicate it, fresh
winds may occaionally be pulsing elsewhere along the coast of 
Baja California. Concurrent altimeter satellite data confirms 
combined seas of 4 to 6 ft overall, with slight seas likely over 
the Gulf of California. No significant shower or thunderstorm 
activity is evident, and there are only minor limititations to 
visibility due to smoke over the coastal waters off southern 
Mexico. 

For the forecast, the moderate to locally fresh NW winds will 
continue across the Baja waters through Sat morning, ahead of the
approaching cold front. The cold front will move into the Baja
Norte waters Sat evening and reach the central Baja waters Sun,
accompanied by a significant increase in winds and seas across
the Baja offshore waters, and strong to near gale-force westerly
gap winds across the Gulf of California through Mon morning.
Large NW swell will follow the front, with combined seas in
excess of 8 ft reaching the waters off Punta Eugenia by early
Sun, Cabo San Lazaro Mon, and the Revillagigedo Islands by Tue. 
The highest seas may reach 16 ft off Guadalupe Island. Relatively
benign marine conditions will persist elsewhere off southern 
Mexico through early next week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms persist along the
monsoon trough and across the nearshore and offshore waters from
Colombia to Guatemala. Weak high pressure north of the area 
supports gentle to locally moderate winds and slight to moderate 
seas across the Gulfs of Papagayo and Panama. Mainly moderate 
southerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft primarily in SW swell are 
found south of 05N.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate breezes will persist across
the waters off Central America, Colombia and Ecuador through 
the middle of next week, with moderate SW swell.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

A strong cold front is moving into the discussion area from the
northwest. High pressure ahead of the front is dissipating,
allowing winds to diminish over the region. Fresh trade winds and
seas to 8 ft are still active from 05N to 15N west of 135W, but 
gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft combined seas in NW swell are
noted elsewhere west of 110W. Gentle to moderate breezes and 4 to
6 ft combined seas primarily in SW swell are noted east of 110W.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will continue to
move across the waters north of 20N through late Sat, and reach from
central Baja California to 23N140W by Sun evening. Strong high 
pressure building behind the front will promote fresh to locally 
strong N to NE winds and building seas to 16 ft behind the front 
through the weekend, with strongest winds and highest seas 
occurring east of 130W.

$$
Christensen