000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120941
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Jun 12 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

South of Southern Mexico (Invest EP93): A large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles 
southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated with a broad 
area of low pressure roughly centered near 11N100W. Associated 
winds are currently are 20 to 25 kt, with seas to 8 ft from 05N 
to 07N between 95W and 100W to the south of the low pressure. 
Nearby convection is described below. Environmental conditions 
appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical 
depression is expected to form late this week or this weekend 
while it moves generally west- northwestward just offshore the 
southwestern coast of Mexico. This system has a medium chance of 
tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 hours, and a high 
chance through the next 7 days. Regardless of development, expect
increasing winds and seas with this feature off southern Mexico 
between Puerto Angel and Cabo Corrientes Fri through Sat night. 
Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to broad 1012 mb low 
pressure near 11N100W to 12N105W, then resumes southwest of the 
remnant low of Cosme near 13N115W to 10N130W. The ITCZ extends 
from 10N130W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 07N to 13N between 85W and 92W, and from 10N to 17N 
between 98W and 105W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information on a
broad area of low pressure located several hundred nautical miles 
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec near 11N100W.

The remnant low of Cosme is located just southwest of Socorro  
Island near 17N111W at 1008 mb. No significant convection is 
present. A recent scatterometer satellite pass showed only 10 to
15 kt winds on the south side of the low pressure. Seas are
estimated to still be 6 to 7 ft but subsiding. Elsewhere, weak 
ridging extends from a 1030 mb high centered well NW of the area 
near 38N149W to offshore Baja California. Moderate NW winds are
evident off Baja California Norte, with 6 to 7 ft seas in NW
swell. Mostly gentle breezes are ongoing elsewhere with 4 to 6 ft
seas in mixed NW and SW swell, except for 1 to 3 ft seas in the
Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, the remnant low of Cosme will continue to spin
down with associated winds and seas diminishing and subsiding 
later this morning. Farther south, a broad area of low pressure 
located several hundred nautical miles south of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec has the potential for tropical cyclone formation late
this week or this weekend while it moves generally west- 
northwestward just offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico. 
Regardless of development, expect increasing winds and seas with 
this feature off southern Mexico between Puerto Angel and Cabo 
Corrientes Fri through Sat night. Looking ahead, large NW swell 
will move into the area near Guadalupe Island off Baja California
Norte Sun and Mon.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Winds are mainly gentle to moderate across the offshore waters. 
Seas are 5-7 ft in SW swell. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are across much of the waters from Colombia and Central America 
as described above.

For the forecast, large SW swell will impact the region by late 
today, persist through most of the weekend, then subside early 
next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section for information on a
broad area of low pressure located several hundred nautical miles 
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec near 11N100W.

Weak ridging dominates the waters north of 15N, and this pattern
is supporting mostly gentle to moderate winds west of 120W, with
5 to 7 ft seas in a mix of NW and S swell. S swell of 8 to 10 ft
is reaching as far north as the Equator between 105W and 120W.
Elsewhere fresh SW winds persist south of the monsoon trough
between 90W and 110W, into the area of broad low pressure
described in the Special Features section (EP93). Seas may 
reaching 8 ft near 06N95W south of the broad low. Seas are 4 to 6
ft in SW swell elsewhere east of 120W.

In the forecast, little change is expected west of 120W except
for increased NW swell north of 28N and east of 130W Sat through
Mon. Conditions east of 120W are described in the Special
Features section above.

$$
Christensen