000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100907
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Jun 10 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Barbara is centered near 19.1N 108.1W at 10/0900
UTC, moving northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with
gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90
nm of the center of the storm. Barbara is weakening as it
encounters cooler air. Barbara is expected to be a remnant low 
by late tonight into Wed just south of Los Cabos. In addition to
very rough seas near the center of the storm, swells generated 
by Barbara will affect portions of the coast of southwestern 
Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely to 
cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please 
consult products from your local weather office.

Tropical Storm Cosme is centered near 15.3N 114.5W at 10/0900
UTC, moving west-northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with
gusts to 75 kt. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing within
90 nm to the northwest and 60 nm to the southeast of the
center. Rough to very rough seas are noted within 90 nm in the
northeast semicircle and 45 nm in the southwest semicircle of the
storm. Cosme will weaken over the next couple of days as it 
moves into an area of cooler water, and is forecast to become a 
remnant low pressure Wed between Socorro and Clarion Islands. 
 
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Barbara and Cosme NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories 
at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 11N95W, and from
09N125W to 08N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection is active along the coast of Costa Rica at 09N85W.
Scattered moderate convection is active 04N to 06N between 85W
and 95W, and from 08N to 10N between 95W and 100W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Storm Barbara and Tropical Tropical Storm Cosme.

Weak ridging between California and Hawaii is supporting moderate
to locally fresh NW winds along the coast of Baja California this
evening, with 5 to 6 ft seas in NW swell. 1005 mb low pressure 
over the Colorado River basin is supporting fresh SE winds across
the northern Gulf of California, and moderate SE winds elsewhere
over the central and southern Gulf of California. Seas remain 2 
to 4 ft due to limited duration of the winds. T.S. Barbara 
dominates the pattern between Cabo Corrientes and Socorro Island.
Farther south, fresh W winds persist off the coast of Guerrero. 
Seas are 5 to 7 ft off southern Mexico in a mix of swell. 

For the forecast, rough to very rough seas, currently affecting 
the offshore waters of Jalisco will propagate northward reaching
the waters between Los Cabos and Las Maria Islands later today. 
Mariners should continue to monitor the latest statements from 
the National Hurricane Center, and plan their routes accordingly 
to avoid the adverse marine conditions. The remnant lows of 
Barbara and Cosme will dissipate near Revillagigedo Islands 
through mid week. Rough seas across the Revillagigedo Islands 
will persist into early Thu. Looking ahead, an area of low 
pressure is forecast to develop later this week south of southern
Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some 
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression 
could form late this week or over the weekend. there is a high 
chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak pressure gradient remains over the area resulting
generally in gentle to moderate southerly winds south of the 
monsoon trough, and light to gentle winds to the north of it. 
Cross-equatorial southwest swell is producing moderate seas 
across the offshore forecast waters. Moderate to fresh winds NE
winds are across the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to near 90W 
based on a scatterometer pass from around 0230 UTC. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds are expected in the 
Papagayo region through Thu night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate
winds will persist S of the monsoon trough while light to gentle
winds are expected to the N of it through Wed. Moderate seas in 
cross equatorial swell will also continue through Wed. Winds may 
increase to fresh speeds S of the monsoon trough on Thu, with 
seas likely building to 8 ft. Abundant deep tropical moisture 
will persist across the region maintaining a high chances of 
additional showers and thunderstorms well into the week as a 
broad low pressure gyre forms west of Central America.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Storm Barbara and Tropical Tropical Storm Cosme.

Outside of the areas impacted by Cosme, a weak ridge dominates 
the waters north of 15N and west of 120W supporting gentle to 
moderate winds. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are occurring 
from 10N to 15N west of 120W due to the pressure gradient 
between the southern periphery of the ridge and the ITCZ/Monsoon 
trough. Seas to 8 ft persist from 10N to 15N west of 135W in a 
combination of moderate tradewind-induced waves and longer period
SW swell. An area of fresh to locally strong southerly winds is 
observed south of the monsoon trough between 110W and 122W. Seas
are 8 ft within these winds. Moderate seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, little change is expected through the middle of
the week outside of the area near Cosme as described in the 
Special Features section. Looking ahead, SW winds will increase 
into the monsoon trough east of 110W later in the week, with 
building seas. This pattern is associated with broad low pressure
that may develop off Central America and the far eastern 
Pacific. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some 
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression 
could form late this week or next weekend. 

$$
Christensen