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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201520
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC SAT DEC 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 06N93W. ITCZ EXTENDS 
FROM 06N93W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N101W TO 05N111W TO 05N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF 
THE LOW NEAR 08N101W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG 27N W OF 120W DOMINATES NORTHERN 
WATERS. MODERATELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND 
LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO 
STRONG TRADES ACROSS W CENTRAL WATERS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH 
MON NIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE AREA SUN AND MON WILL 
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS SW OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SUN. 

LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH DISSIPATED COLD FRONT 
IS SWEEPING TOWARD THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH MAX SEAS TO 
15-17 FT NEAR 30N130W BASED ON ALTIMETER DATA. LARGE AREA OF 
SEAS GREATER THAN 7-8 FT EXTENDING OVER MOST OF REGION W OF 117W 
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SE THIS WEEKEND AND COVER MOST OF AREA W 
OF 105W BY MON MORNING. 

A WEAK 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE AREA EMBEDDED IN ITCZ NEAR 08N101W 
IS MOVING W AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. 
THE LOW WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH OCCASIONAL DEEP CONVECTION AS IT 
CONTINUES TO MOVE W THROUGH MON WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT.

...GAP WINDS...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WEAK NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW TO 15-20 KT 
IS EXPECTED DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH 
MON MORNING WITH PEAK WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KT EARLY SUN. HIGH 
PRES BUILDING BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO TUE NIGHT AND WED WILL INDUCE VERY HIGH WINDS IN GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AFTER EARLY WED MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GALE 
WINDS ARE LIKELY WED THROUGH FRI. STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT 
DIURNAL MAX LATE WED AND EARLY THU.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED  
THROUGH EARLY TUE...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WED.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGE OVER NORTHERN 
WATERS AND TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO WILL SUPPORT FRESH NW WINDS IN 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH TUE MORNING...THEN BECOME STRONG TUE 
THROUGH WED MORNING AS THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS REGION TIGHTENS.

$$
MUNDELL



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Page last modified: Saturday, 20-Dec-2014 15:20:35 UTC