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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241450
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1450 UTC Sun Jul 24 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Hurricane Georgette is centered at 15.1N 124.6W at 1500 UTC, moving
west-northwest or 295 degrees at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds
are 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure
has dropped to 984 mb. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong
convection is noted within 120 nm of the center. Georgette is
expected to continue moving west-northwest during the next couple
of days, but will weaken to tropical storm strength Monday night.
Refer to the latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Storm Frank is centered at 20.3N 112.4W at 1500 UTC, or
about 210 nm southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.
Frank is moving west-northwest, or 295 degrees at 6 kt. Maximum
sustained winds remain 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt while estimated
minimum central pressure stays at 996 mb. Frank continues to
move under NE upper- level wind shear, which is displacing most of
the deep convection to the south of the center. Scattered to
numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm in
the south semicircle, and within 30 nm of the north semicircle of
the center. The persistent shear will likely keep Frank from
intensifying further as it moves west-northwest, and Frank is
expected to start to weaken Monday. Large southerly swell from
Frank will impact the southern coast of Baja California Sur during
the next couple of days and shift northward into central portions
of the Baja Peninsula Monday. This will generate rough and
dangerous surf along the local coastlines. Refer to the latest NHC
forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC
for more details.

Also see latest high seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the wave forecasts
associated with these systems.

...TROPICAL WAVE... 

A tropical wave north of 11N near 97W/98W, just west of the Gulf
of Tehuantepec region. The wave has little associated convection.

A second tropical wave north of 10N through the western Yucatan
Peninsula along 91W/92W is enhancing scattered overnight
convection within 150 nm . This wave will shift to the west over
southeastern Mexico and the adjacent near and offshore coastal
waters during the next 24-36 hours.

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from near 09N78W to 08N87W to 08N104W
to 10N111W. The ITCZ extends from 10N128W to beyond 08N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is present within 180 nm south of
axis east of 82W. Scattered moderate convection also noted within
60 nm either side of ITCZ axis between 134W and 138W.

...DISCUSSION...   

North of 15N and east of 120W:

Strong southerly flow persists this morning over Socorro Island in
the wake of Tropical Storm Frank, which passed over the
Revillagigedo Islands yesterday. Showers and thunderstorms will
taper off through today over Socorro as the storm moves farther to
the west-northwest. Southerly swell associated with Frank has been
impacting the area between the southern entrance of the Gulf of
California between Cabo San Lucas and Cabo Corrientes, although
this is starting to subside. Offshore seas of 5 to 7 ft are
present in this area. Seas of 8 to 12 ft will cover the Pacific
offshore waters off Baja California Sur through early Monday, away
from the immediate vicinity of Frank. This will create rough and
hazardous marine conditions across the offshore waters, and large
and powerful surf along the exposed coastal areas of Baja
California Sur. Large waves and very strong rip currents will
dominate these coastlines throughout the weekend. As Frank moves
NW Monday and Tuesday, it will encounter cooler waters and begin
to weaken over the open Pacific.

A relatively deep 1003 mb low was analyzed on the 12 UTC surface
map this morning over the lower Colorado River valley, with a
surface trough reaching though the northern Gulf of California.
This supported moderate to fresh southerly flow across the far
northern Gulf of California earlier. This has likely diminished
already, and only light to moderate southerly flow is anticipated
over the next several days across the Gulf of California. 

Northerly swell related to strong winds of California are pushing
south and will mix with southerly swell generated from Frank off
the Baja California Norte coast through the next couple of days.

South of 15N and east of 120W:

Moderate to locally fresh east winds are expected across and just
downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight hours
during the next several days. The winds will be augmented by
nocturnal drainage flow.

West of 120W:

High pressure is building north of the area and into the sub-
tropical areas north of 25N in the wake of Estelle, which has
dissipated west of the area. This is allowing a modest increase in
trade wind flow farther south in the deep tropics west of 130W,
supporting an area of showers and thunderstorms north of a newly
formed ITCZ boundary. The track of Georgette will weaken the ridge
again however over the the next couple of days, allowing trade
winds to diminish. 

Swell generated from Georgette, and soon Frank as it crosses west
of 120W Tuesday night, will interact with northerly swell
generated from strong winds off California. Northerly swell to 9
ft will propagate into the waters west of 120W and north of 25N
into mid week. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN


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Page last modified: Sunday, 24-Jul-2016 14:50:41 UTC