000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242151
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Apr 24 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

An equatorial trough curves northwestward from the Colombian
coast west of Cali to 07N90W. An ITCZ continues west-southwestward
from 07N90W across 07N115W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring near these features from 03N to 10N 
between 77W and 140W. This area includes the offshore waters of 
Costa Rica, Panama and northwestern Colombia.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends southeastward from a 1019 mb high near 
26N123W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and a trough over the Gulf of California is
supporting gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas of 4 to 6
ft west of Baja California and near the Revillagigedo Islands. 
Moderate with locally fresh southerly winds and 2 to 4 ft seas 
exist at the northern Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds 
and seas at 1 to 2 ft prevail elsewhere in the Gulf of California.
Gentle to moderate N to NNW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are 
present off central Mexico, including waters near Cabo Corrientes.
Mainly gentle winds with 4 to 5 ft seas in mixed moderate swell
prevail across the offshore waters of southern Mexico.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh southerly winds in the 
northern Gulf of California will pulse to between fresh and 
strong with locally near-gale force this evening through early 
Thu morning, and again Fri evening through early Sat morning. 
Starting Thu, high pressure across the East Pacific is going to 
strenghten. This will cause gentle to moderate northerly winds 
west of Baja California and near the Revillagigedo Islands to 
become fresh to locally strong along with building seas by Fri.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

An upper-level trough is triggering widely scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms at the offshore waters of Guatemala and El
Salvador. Refer to the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section for additional
convection. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4 to 7 
ft are in the Gulf of Papagayo region as indicated by earlier 
satellite altimeter data. Moderate with locally fresh north 
winds along with 3 to 5 ft seas are in the Gulf of Panama 
reaching south to near 05N. Light to gentle winds with seas at 3
to 5 ft in mixed moderate swells are noted in the offshore waters
of Guatemala and El Salvador. Mainly gentle S to WSW winds and 
seas at 4 to 5 ft in mixed moderate swells exist elsewhere over 
the Central American offshore waters. Gentle with locally 
moderate southerly winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft in long-period 
moderate southerly swell continue offshore Ecuador, Colombia and
near the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, moderate NE to E winds at the Gulf of Papagayo
region will become fresh to strong this evening through Fri 
morning. Gentle northerly winds at the Gulf of Panama will 
increase to between moderate and fresh during this same time 
period. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds along with moderate seas
will continue through the weekend. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge extends southeastward from a 1029 mb high near 
32N143W to another 1019 high west of Baja California Norte near 
26N123W. A surface trough curves southwestward from a 1021 mb 
low at 29N126W to 27N130W. Widely scattered showers are seen 
near these features north of 26N between 121W and 130W. Moderate
to fresh N to NW winds with 6 to 7 ft seas are present west of 
the low, north of 28N between 125W and 129W as revealed by
earlier satellite altimeter data. For the remaining area north 
of 20N and west of 120W, gentle to moderate N to NE winds and 
seas at 5 to 6 ft exist. Gradient between the high pressure to 
the north and lower pressure associated with the ITCZ is 
supporting moderate to fresh trade winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft 
from 08N to 20N west of 117W. Gentle to moderate ENE to SSE 
winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted near the ITCZ and equatorial 
trough. South of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate E to SE winds along
with seas of 4 to 6 ft in long-period, moderate southerly swell 
prevail.

For the forecast, the trade winds from 09N to 21N are forecast 
to become fresh to occasionally strong, along with 7 to 9 ft seas
by Thu evening as the surface ridge strengthens. The aforementioned
weak low pressure and related trough are forecast to move in a 
general eastward motion through this afternoon, weakening into a 
trough later this evening. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 
seas at 5 to 7 ft are expected north of 21N and west of 120W by 
Fri.

$$

Chan