260
AXPZ20 KNHC 192034
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Jul 19 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave has its axis near 88W from 08N northward across
portions of Honduras into the NW Caribbean Sea, moving westward
at 5 to 10 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 03N to 09N between 83W and 88W.
A tropical wave has its axis near 127W from 05N to 18N, moving
westward at 5 to 10 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 117W and 127W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 1008 mb low pressure located
near the coast of northern Colombia near 09N75W across Costa
Rica to 11N100W to 11N120W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 02N to 05N between 78W and 83W, from
05N to 09N between 88W and 101W, from 05N to 10N between 106W
and 113W, and from 06N to 13N between 127W and 140W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Fresh to strong N to NE winds are ongoing in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec region, along with seas of 6 to 9 ft. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds continue. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in long-
period southwest swell, mixed NW swell in the outer Baja
California offshore waters, except slight seas in the Gulf of
California.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh S winds will pulse early Sun
in the northern Gulf of California as low pressure deepens just
N of the area, then prevail through Tue night. Pulsing fresh to
strong north gap winds will continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
through Wed night as a surface trough is expected to move from
the Yucatan Peninsula to Veracruz for the next several days.
Rough seas are forecast in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through
tonight. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
will prevail. Winds may freshen near Baja California by mid-week
as the local pressure gradient tightens slightly.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are in the Gulf of
Papagayo region. Seas with these winds are 6 to 8 ft. Moderate
southerly winds are over the waters between Ecuador and The
Galapagos Islands along with seas of 6 to 7 ft in south to
southwest swell. Light and variable winds are elsewhere across
the Central America offshore waters. Seas over these waters are 5
to 7 ft in south to southwest swell.
For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong northeast to east
winds will continue in the Gulf of Papagayo through Wed night
with periods of rough seas. Moderate to locally fresh winds
associated with these gap winds will continue to affect the outer
offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala through the middle
of next week. Otherwise, gentle to moderate southerly winds will
continue between Ecuador and The Galapagos Islands through Wed
night along with moderate seas.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Strong high pressure is analyzed well northwest of the
discussion area. A ridge extends from the high center SSE to 20N
and 115W. A tropical wave is south of the ridge near 127W. Winds
near this wave have increased to moderate to fresh, with seas
building to 6 to 8 ft. The pressure gradient between the ridge
and the wave is also allowing for moderate to fresh northeast to
east winds to exist from north of the monsoon trough to 19N
between 120W and 140W. Gentle to moderate northeast to east
trades are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ along
with 5 to 7 ft seas. South of the monsoon, winds are moderate to
locally fresh and seas to 7 ft in SE swell.
For the forecast, the tropical wave currently along 127W is
located in an environment where conditions are marginally
conducive for tropical development over the next few days. As
the area of presently-disorganized showers and thunderstorms in
association with it move WNW at around 10 kt, there is a low
chance of tropical cyclone formation before it reaches
unfavorable conditions by the early to middle portions of next
week. Otherwise, the moderate to fresh northeast to east trades
will change little north of the monsoon trough and the ITCZ
through early Sat, then shift to the western part of the area as
the gradient between a tropical wave and the high pressure
tightens. Guidance suggests that seas may reach around 9 ft with
the tighter gradient over the western part of the area early Sun
through Wed and with increasing winds to strong speeds. Seas will
build to around 8 ft south of the Equator and west of 105W by
this afternoon, then linger through the early part of next week.
$$
Konarik