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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150951
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Dec 15 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front entering the far 
NW Gulf of Mexico tonight will reach the Bay of Campeche Fri 
night. Cool and dense air will funnel through the Chivela pass 
into the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri evening with winds rapidly 
ramping up to near gale force Fri evening and further to gale 
force later Fri night. The front will lose its push Saturday, 
which will diminish winds funneling across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. This will keep this gale force gap wind event brief 
as winds are expected to diminish below gale force by Sat 
afternoon. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The ITCZ extends from 07N92W TO 07.5N113W TO beyond 10N140W. 
Widely scattered moderate convection is from 11.5N TO 17N 
between 114W AND 120W. Scattered moderate to strong convection 
is from 13N to 17N W OF 137W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of California: Strong NW winds prevail over the far 
northern Gulf of California tonight, and will gradually shift S 
through the basin to near 26.5n late tonight before diminishing 
below 20 kt early Saturday. Winds will diminish further across 
the Gulf during the day Saturday, and shift S to SW ahead of an 
approaching cold front. The cold front will push southward 
across Baja California Norte into the Gulf of California this 
weekend with fresh to locally strong SW winds ahead of the 
front. Associated large swell and strong winds will spread 
across the Pacific waters off the coast of Baja California Norte 
during this time.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong winds across the Gulf of Papagayo will diminish 
early Fri, then strengthen again Sat night. Fresh N winds will 
funnel across the Gulf of Panama through late this morning 
before diminishing through the weekend.  

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1029 mb centered north of the area near 36N134W 
extends a ridge southeast to near 20N113W. The pressure gradient 
between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds north 
of the ITCZ to 21N and west of 118W. The tradewinds have become 
further enhanced to the W of 135W as a low level trough has 
developed just W of the area along 144W. This feature will drift 
N during the next 24-36 hours and maintain strong tradewinds 
across far W portions W of 135W. NW swell propagating through 
the area is supporting seas 8 ft or greater over much of the 
area west of 120W. Seas associated with a fresh pulse of NW 
swell over the NW waters are peaking near 15 ft in the area of 
strong trades W of 135W. Seas will slowly subside as the swell 
propagates southeast the next few days. A cold front will move 
into the far northern waters Saturday. This will usher in 
another set of northerly swell into the area, with seas peaking 
near 14 ft Saturday night near 30N122W. 

$$
Stripling

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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Dec-2017 09:51:32 UTC