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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310853
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0815 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                            
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 100W FROM 09N-21N MOVING W 20-25 KT 
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD A DRIER AND MORE 
STABLE ENVIRONMENT. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 12N87W ALONG 15N92W 14N100W TO 
12N111W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N124W TO 
11N137W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 
9N TO COAST OF GUATEMALA AND MEXICO BETWEEN 90W-101W AND FROM 
8N-12N BETWEEN 100W-114W. 

...DISCUSSION...    

A 1011 MB LOW PRES CENTER...THE REMNANTS OF MARIE...IS CENTERED 
NEAR 31N137W DRIFTING W. THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWS 
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN THE DISCUSSION AREA. 
HOWEVER...THE SEAS WILL REMAIN 8 FT OR GREATER OVER THE FAR NW 
PORTION THROUGH SUN NIGHT. 

A 1025 MB HIGH NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDS A NARROW RIDGE 
AXIS THROUGH 32N148W CURVING SE INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 
24N140W TO 21N134W. 

ELSEWHERE W OF 100W...THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD 
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE CONTINUES 
TO MOVE W. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE 
TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WITH MIXED SW SWELL THROUGH THE NEXT 
24 HOURS. SW FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL INCREASE TO FRESH 
LEVELS WELL TO THE SW OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS...WITH RESULTANT 
SEAS BUILDING TO 8-9 FT FROM 24 TO 48 HOURS. 

E OF 100W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE 
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE 
NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO ENTER THE BASIN IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS 
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUE. 

$$
PAW



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Page last modified: Sunday, 31-Aug-2014 08:53:44 UTC