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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270940
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC MON APR 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N93W TO 09N108W TO 08N116W TO 02N128W 
TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 
04N TO 07N BETWEEN 96W AND 100W...AND FROM 03N TO 12N BETWEEN 
111W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...    

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING 
FROM NEW MEXICO ACROSS NW MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA 
TO 21N127W. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS W OF THE TROUGH AND A WIDE 
SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED NE E OF THE TROUGH 
FROM ACTIVE CONVECTION OCCURRING NEAR THE ITCZ.

STRONG NW WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT W OF 
SO-CAL EXTEND INTO DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 118W AND 
122W...PRODUCING FRESH NW SWELL OF 8-11 FT REACHING TO 24N W OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS LATER 
TODAY AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT EARLY TUE MORNING.

1026 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N132W EXTENDS A RIDGE TO 
AROUND 17N W OF 119W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGE AND 
LOWER PRESSURE NEAR THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE 
WINDS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 127W AND 134W. THE GRADIENT WILL 
SLACKEN THROUGH 48 HOURS...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH 
IN THIS AREA THROUGH WED.

NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM A LOW NEAR 
38N142W TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL REACH FAR NW PART OF THE 
AREA TUE...THEN QUICKLY BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.

GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS REACHING MINIMAL GALE FORCE IN 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING 
WITH SEAS RAPIDLY BUILDING TO 11-12 FT.

$$
MUNDELL

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Page last modified: Monday, 27-Apr-2015 09:40:13 UTC